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Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Market icon
Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

$297,525 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$297,525 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$0 Vol.

10%

December 31, 2026

$4,086 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu maintains his position following a protracted 2026 budget battle, where he invoked Article 49.3 to force key provisions through the National Assembly in January and survived no-confidence votes, culminating in passage by early February. Recent parliamentary question-and-answer sessions as of late March underscore ongoing government activity amid criticism for his low profile during first-round municipal elections on March 15. In France's hung parliament and minority government setup, vulnerability to opposition-led no-confidence motions persists, though no fresh triggers have emerged in the past 30 days. Lecornu outlined an end-of-mandate agenda in early February, emphasizing energy and defense priorities ahead of President Macron's 2027 term end, with second-round municipal results and legislative votes as potential catalysts for shifts.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu maintains his position following a protracted 2026 budget battle, where he invoked Article 49.3 to force key provisions through the National Assembly in January and survived no-confidence votes, culminating in passage by early February. Recent parliamentary question-and-answer sessions as of late March underscore ongoing government activity amid criticism for his low profile during first-round municipal elections on March 15. In France's hung parliament and minority government setup, vulnerability to opposition-led no-confidence motions persists, though no fresh triggers have emerged in the past 30 days. Lecornu outlined an end-of-mandate agenda in early February, emphasizing energy and defense priorities ahead of President Macron's 2027 term end, with second-round municipal results and legislative votes as potential catalysts for shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu maintains his position following a protracted 2026 budget battle, where he invoked Article 49.3 to force key provisions through the National Assembly in January and survived no-confidence votes, culminating in passage by early February. Recent parliamentary question-and-answer sessions as of late March underscore ongoing government activity amid criticism for his low profile during first-round municipal elections on March 15. In France's hung parliament and minority government setup, vulnerability to opposition-led no-confidence motions persists, though no fresh triggers have emerged in the past 30 days. Lecornu outlined an end-of-mandate agenda in early February, emphasizing energy and defense priorities ahead of President Macron's 2027 term end, with second-round municipal results and legislative votes as potential catalysts for shifts.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu maintains his position following a protracted 2026 budget battle, where he invoked Article 49.3 to force key provisions through the National Assembly in January and survived no-confidence votes, culminating in passage by early February. Recent parliamentary question-and-answer sessions as of late March underscore ongoing government activity amid criticism for his low profile during first-round municipal elections on March 15. In France's hung parliament and minority government setup, vulnerability to opposition-led no-confidence motions persists, though no fresh triggers have emerged in the past 30 days. Lecornu outlined an end-of-mandate agenda in early February, emphasizing energy and defense priorities ahead of President Macron's 2027 term end, with second-round municipal results and legislative votes as potential catalysts for shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 41%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" has generated $297.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lecornu out as French PM by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.