Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Israel intercepts Greta Thunberg's ship before reaching Gaza?

$205,796 Vol.

>99% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the vessel Madleen, while carrying Greta Thunberg, is physically intercepted, redirected, detained, or boarded by any Israeli military or governmental authority before it reaches the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes enforcement of a naval blockade, boarding by armed forces, the use of force, electronic warfare, or threats to prevent the ship from completing its mission. Voluntary rerouting or delays due to weather, mechanical issues, or internal decisions not caused by external pressure will not qualify.

The vessel will be considered to have reached the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip if the vessel comes within 100 meters of the Gaza shoreline. Entry into Gaza’s maritime zone will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$205,796
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Jun 4, 2025, 12:44 AM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$205,796 Vol.

Market icon

Israel intercepts Greta Thunberg's ship before reaching Gaza?

>99% chance

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the vessel Madleen, while carrying Greta Thunberg, is physically intercepted, redirected, detained, or boarded by any Israeli military or governmental authority before it reaches the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes enforcement of a naval blockade, boarding by armed forces, the use of force, electronic warfare, or threats to prevent the ship from completing its mission. Voluntary rerouting or delays due to weather, mechanical issues, or internal decisions not caused by external pressure will not qualify.

The vessel will be considered to have reached the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip if the vessel comes within 100 meters of the Gaza shoreline. Entry into Gaza’s maritime zone will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$205,796
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Jun 4, 2025, 12:44 AM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.