Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified direct kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and disrupted IRGC naval assets. In the last 24 hours, Iran hit a tanker off Qatar's coast and ignited a Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai Port with anti-ship missiles, while a U.S.-linked vessel was targeted near Oman on March 29. These actions, including prior suicide boat rammings and drone attacks, have forced shipping diversions via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, spiked oil prices, and closed the strait to most traffic. Traders monitor potential U.S. naval escalations, Israeli counterstrikes, or UN-mediated ceasefires amid IRGC's asymmetric campaign.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$118,888 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
2%
$118,888 Vol.
March 31
$5,799 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified direct kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and disrupted IRGC naval assets. In the last 24 hours, Iran hit a tanker off Qatar's coast and ignited a Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai Port with anti-ship missiles, while a U.S.-linked vessel was targeted near Oman on March 29. These actions, including prior suicide boat rammings and drone attacks, have forced shipping diversions via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, spiked oil prices, and closed the strait to most traffic. Traders monitor potential U.S. naval escalations, Israeli counterstrikes, or UN-mediated ceasefires amid IRGC's asymmetric campaign.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$118,888End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified direct kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and disrupted IRGC naval assets. In the last 24 hours, Iran hit a tanker off Qatar's coast and ignited a Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai Port with anti-ship missiles, while a U.S.-linked vessel was targeted near Oman on March 29. These actions, including prior suicide boat rammings and drone attacks, have forced shipping diversions via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, spiked oil prices, and closed the strait to most traffic. Traders monitor potential U.S. naval escalations, Israeli counterstrikes, or UN-mediated ceasefires amid IRGC's asymmetric campaign.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$118,888End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified direct kinetic strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and disrupted IRGC naval assets. In the last 24 hours, Iran hit a tanker off Qatar's coast and ignited a Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai Port with anti-ship missiles, while a U.S.-linked vessel was targeted near Oman on March 29. These actions, including prior suicide boat rammings and drone attacks, have forced shipping diversions via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, spiked oil prices, and closed the strait to most traffic. Traders monitor potential U.S. naval escalations, Israeli counterstrikes, or UN-mediated ceasefires amid IRGC's asymmetric campaign.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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