André Carson's incumbency since 2008 and consistent strong performance in the solidly Democratic IN-07 district, which encompasses most of Indianapolis, underpin the market's assessment of his position. Multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Carson defeated primary challengers in May with 62 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Patrick McAuley advanced easily but confronts the district's partisan baseline and limited challenger resources. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and the lack of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could still narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate low likelihood of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-07 House Election Winner
IN-07 House Election Winner
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
<1%
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
$7,947 Vol.
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
$37,789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).André Carson's incumbency since 2008 and consistent strong performance in the solidly Democratic IN-07 district, which encompasses most of Indianapolis, underpin the market's assessment of his position. Multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Carson defeated primary challengers in May with 62 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Patrick McAuley advanced easily but confronts the district's partisan baseline and limited challenger resources. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and the lack of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could still narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate low likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).André Carson's incumbency since 2008 and consistent strong performance in the solidly Democratic IN-07 district, which encompasses most of Indianapolis, underpin the market's assessment of his position. Multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Carson defeated primary challengers in May with 62 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Patrick McAuley advanced easily but confronts the district's partisan baseline and limited challenger resources. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and the lack of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could still narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate low likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...André Carson's incumbency since 2008 and consistent strong performance in the solidly Democratic IN-07 district, which encompasses most of Indianapolis, underpin the market's assessment of his position. Multiple forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Safe or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Carson defeated primary challengers in May with 62 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Patrick McAuley advanced easily but confronts the district's partisan baseline and limited challenger resources. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and the lack of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could still narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate low likelihood of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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