André Carson’s commanding position in the Indiana 7th congressional district race stems from the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21 and the incumbent’s consistent general-election margins above 65 percent in recent cycles. The district encompasses most of Indianapolis in Marion County, where Democratic primary voters have backed Carson since his 2008 special election win. Both major-party nominees—Carson and Republican Patrick McAuley—emerged from May 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. McAuley’s campaign has emphasized local economic concerns and affordability, yet faces structural headwinds from limited name recognition and fundraising. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout, none of which have materialized in available reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-07 House Election Winner
IN-07 House Election Winner
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
<1%
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
$7,947 Vol.
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
$37,789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).André Carson’s commanding position in the Indiana 7th congressional district race stems from the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21 and the incumbent’s consistent general-election margins above 65 percent in recent cycles. The district encompasses most of Indianapolis in Marion County, where Democratic primary voters have backed Carson since his 2008 special election win. Both major-party nominees—Carson and Republican Patrick McAuley—emerged from May 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. McAuley’s campaign has emphasized local economic concerns and affordability, yet faces structural headwinds from limited name recognition and fundraising. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout, none of which have materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).André Carson’s commanding position in the Indiana 7th congressional district race stems from the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21 and the incumbent’s consistent general-election margins above 65 percent in recent cycles. The district encompasses most of Indianapolis in Marion County, where Democratic primary voters have backed Carson since his 2008 special election win. Both major-party nominees—Carson and Republican Patrick McAuley—emerged from May 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. McAuley’s campaign has emphasized local economic concerns and affordability, yet faces structural headwinds from limited name recognition and fundraising. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout, none of which have materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...André Carson’s commanding position in the Indiana 7th congressional district race stems from the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21 and the incumbent’s consistent general-election margins above 65 percent in recent cycles. The district encompasses most of Indianapolis in Marion County, where Democratic primary voters have backed Carson since his 2008 special election win. Both major-party nominees—Carson and Republican Patrick McAuley—emerged from May 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. McAuley’s campaign has emphasized local economic concerns and affordability, yet faces structural headwinds from limited name recognition and fundraising. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually depressed Democratic turnout, none of which have materialized in available reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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