Incumbent André Carson’s long tenure representing Indiana’s 7th congressional district, anchored in urban Indianapolis, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his reelection. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in consistent double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Carson secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 62 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican Patrick McAuley advanced easily on the other side. Forecasters cite the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established record as decisive structural advantages heading into the November 3 general election. A major late-cycle event such as a candidate withdrawal, health issue, or unusually large national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-07 House Election Winner
IN-07 House Election Winner
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
<1%
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
$7,947 Vol.
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
$37,789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent André Carson’s long tenure representing Indiana’s 7th congressional district, anchored in urban Indianapolis, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his reelection. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in consistent double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Carson secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 62 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican Patrick McAuley advanced easily on the other side. Forecasters cite the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established record as decisive structural advantages heading into the November 3 general election. A major late-cycle event such as a candidate withdrawal, health issue, or unusually large national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent André Carson’s long tenure representing Indiana’s 7th congressional district, anchored in urban Indianapolis, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his reelection. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in consistent double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Carson secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 62 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican Patrick McAuley advanced easily on the other side. Forecasters cite the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established record as decisive structural advantages heading into the November 3 general election. A major late-cycle event such as a candidate withdrawal, health issue, or unusually large national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent André Carson’s long tenure representing Indiana’s 7th congressional district, anchored in urban Indianapolis, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his reelection. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in consistent double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Carson secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 62 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican Patrick McAuley advanced easily on the other side. Forecasters cite the district’s partisan composition and the incumbent’s established record as decisive structural advantages heading into the November 3 general election. A major late-cycle event such as a candidate withdrawal, health issue, or unusually large national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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