Incumbent Democrat André Carson holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 7th congressional district, a seat encompassing most of Indianapolis with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21. Carson, first elected in 2008, won the May 2026 Democratic primary with 62.4 percent and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, including 68.3 percent in 2024. The district’s urban voter base and structural advantages underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Republican nominee Patrick McAuley, who won his primary but reports no fundraising, faces an uphill path in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. A late-cycle development such as Carson’s withdrawal, a major health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIN-07 House Election Winner
IN-07 House Election Winner
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
<1%
$45,736 Vol.
$45,736 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
André Carson (D)
$7,947 Vol.
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
$37,789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat André Carson holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 7th congressional district, a seat encompassing most of Indianapolis with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21. Carson, first elected in 2008, won the May 2026 Democratic primary with 62.4 percent and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, including 68.3 percent in 2024. The district’s urban voter base and structural advantages underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Republican nominee Patrick McAuley, who won his primary but reports no fundraising, faces an uphill path in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. A late-cycle development such as Carson’s withdrawal, a major health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat André Carson holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 7th congressional district, a seat encompassing most of Indianapolis with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21. Carson, first elected in 2008, won the May 2026 Democratic primary with 62.4 percent and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, including 68.3 percent in 2024. The district’s urban voter base and structural advantages underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Republican nominee Patrick McAuley, who won his primary but reports no fundraising, faces an uphill path in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. A late-cycle development such as Carson’s withdrawal, a major health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,736End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat André Carson holds a commanding position in Indiana’s 7th congressional district, a seat encompassing most of Indianapolis with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21. Carson, first elected in 2008, won the May 2026 Democratic primary with 62.4 percent and has consistently delivered Democratic margins above 65 percent in recent cycles, including 68.3 percent in 2024. The district’s urban voter base and structural advantages underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Republican nominee Patrick McAuley, who won his primary but reports no fundraising, faces an uphill path in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. A late-cycle development such as Carson’s withdrawal, a major health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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