Name: How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-05T19:47:34.719608Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This is a market on the prediction of the number of people Trump will deport in 2025.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

<250k

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 250,000 (inclusive) and 500,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

250-500k

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 500,000 (inclusive) and 750,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

500-750k

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 750,000 (inclusive) and 1,000,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

750k-1m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,00,000 (inclusive) and 1,250,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1-1.25m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,750,000 (inclusive) and 2,000,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1.75-2m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,250,000 (inclusive) and 1,500,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1.25-1.5m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,500,000 (inclusive) and 1,750,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1.5-1.75m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 2,000,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Deportation Count

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, has proposed a $25 billion plan to the Trump Administration for mass deportations, utilizing military bases as processing camps, a fleet of 100 planes, and a private citizen army to deport up to 12 million undocumented immigrants by 2026. The proposal has sparked significant attention and support among conservative circles, while facing opposition from some local leaders and activists who vow to obstruct deportation efforts.

Prince Proposal

Karoline keeps dropping heat🔥

Reporter says illegal aliens are being put in “cages” at Guantanamo Bay

Karoline’s like yeah, they broke into this country and committed heinous crimes like rape

This is why 70%+ support Trump’s mass deportations
 https://t.co/elx1Nxe88P

JUST IN: Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 https://t.co/lIs2vy6GcM

Erik Prince is offering Trump the largest private military company in the world to assist with Deportations

Report on Jesse Watters, said Trump wants to accelerate deportations

Blackwater evacuated Americans abandoned by Biden in Afghanistan

I hope Trump accepts his offer 👍 https://t.co/m5i7BB7QCy

Blackwater founder Erik Prince has offered to privatize mass deportations for the White House.

His proposal includes using “processing camps,” a fleet of 100 planes, and an “army” of private citizens to find and remove illegals. The offer carries a price tag of $25 billion. https://t.co/CJRUHEI4pi

BREAKING: Blackwater founder Erik Prince has offered to privatize mass deportations for the White House.

Deporting 10 million illegal immigrants would reduce the national debt by more than $1.3 trillion.

Mass deportations are a fiscally conservative policy. https://t.co/j5knqcodjH https://t.co/NTZtlRtX01

BREAKING: Erik Prince, the head of Blackwater, has offered the Trump Administration his company’s help with deportations, using military bases as processing centers and a fleet of 100 planes.

Now this is epic.

Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 million https://t.co/nVKMcTRylo

Erik Prince is offering Trump a huge private military outfit to turbocharge deportations—aiming for 12 million gone by 2026, complete with processing camps, 100 planes, and a deputized posse. Jesse Watters on Fox is hyping Trump’s push to accelerate the crackdown. Prince’s https://t.co/CM8Zn1rjqB

🚨BREAKING: Denver Mayor Mike Johnson Says, "I am willing to go to jail to block deportations." 

What's your response to Mike? https://t.co/IIBLFqTFVF

Anti-ICE organizer brags on local TV about an operation to obstruct the deportations.

Arrest them all.

https://t.co/HBJoGCFjKs

🚨SHOCKING: Whistleblower EXPOSES Agency Leaders Letting FBI Agents REFUSE to Help with MASS DEPORTATIONS:

"If you have an objection you don't have to do it. They'll ask for volunteers who get labeled MAGA Nazis. Opt out on their way to a raid.. disrupting the whole thing." https://t.co/Qg6BYI3e7o

The Trump admin needs to do everything it can to meet the flagship promise of mass deportations. If Prince is willing and the price is right, let him. These people need to be gone, whether it’s ICE or a PMC that gets them. https://t.co/VSocSVQM6W

NEW: A group of influential military contractors, including former Blackwater CEO Erik Prince, proposed a plan to the Trump White House for mass deportations using “processing camps” on military bases, a private fleet of 100 planes, and a “small army” of private citizens https://t.co/Na8TJ9he9w

🚨Update: Blackwater Founder Erik Prince proposes to privatize mass deportations for $25 BILLION! 

Plan includes ‘private fleet’ of 100 planes, ‘processing camps’ and private citizen ‘army’ to track and remove illegals from US! https://t.co/X3oIgL6grf

Blackwater’s Erik Prince proposes to privatize mass deportations for $25 BILLION

Plan includes ‘private fleet’ of 100 planes, ‘processing camps’ and private citizen ‘army’ to track and remove illegals from US https://t.co/z0LHjfdH0h

Posobiec Calls for "Pedal to the Metal" on Mass Deportations

"I love that they've gone after the worst of the worst, but I want to see those numbers go up, up, up," @JackPosobiec told Border Hawk https://t.co/ZUi4kpi5Y1

JUST IN: Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 https://t.co/zYGMZJnNWo

Now we're talking. Six million deportations per year for four years = 24 million deportations. Problem solved by the end of Trump's term. @POTUS needs to go all in on this. https://t.co/90jGZ5BHwW

🚨Update: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departing Joint Base Andrews to visit the US base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba! He will inspect 'operations supporting illegal immigrant deportations!’ 
https://t.co/iH2dfzy2hp

JUST IN: Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 https://t.co/5sare69zz0

SCOOP: A group of military contractors, including Erik Prince, has pitched the White House on a proposal to carry out mass deportations through “processing camps” on military bases, a fleet of 100 planes, and a private “small army”  https://t.co/ss8b6nvBJL @DashaBurns @MyahWard

Leaked $25B Military Contractor Pitch Promises Trump 12 Million Deportations By Midterms: Report https://t.co/oOOo07cnGx via @mediaite

..@RealErikDPrince says the private sector can help President Trump with mass deportations. Prince, the founder of private military contractor Academi, formerly known as Blackwater, joins “On Balance” to discuss his proposal to assist Trump.

MORE: https://t.co/jMJrTtogLr https://t.co/1pg1Yznos9

President-elect Donald Trump is preparing over 100 executive orders to initiate mass deportations and strengthen border policies starting Day 1, with Border Czar Tom Homan confirming plans for workplace raids and collateral arrests despite funding challenges. Meanwhile, California Governor Gavin Newsom and state legislators have allocated up to $50 million to legally counter Trump's deportation agenda, as protests erupt in Fresno and Democrats call for stronger resistance.

Mass Deportation Plans

BREAKING: California Gov. Gavin Newsom and state legislative leaders have agreed to set aside $50 million to fight Trump’s agenda, including deportations, per POLITICO.

🚨UNREAL: While LA is being devastated by fires, Newsom and CA legislators reach an agreement to allocate $50M to “Trump-proof” California.

The funds will be used to fight Trump and looming deportations in court.

From Politico:

"Gov. Gavin Newsom and state legislative leaders https://t.co/fLx1HKcM2Z

JUST IN: JD Vance prepares the public for a major media narrative coming our way when Trump enacts mass deportations.

He's right.

"This term is something you're gonna hear a lot - 'family separation.' It's important - that's a euphemism. That is a dishonest term to hide behind https://t.co/fMAmzefwDl

BREAKING: On Friday, while wildfires raged on, California lawmakers met to set aside $25 million to help battle Trump's deportations, and create a 'Trump litigation website' - KCRA

BREAKING: Trump’s Border Czar Tom Homan says there will be ‘collateral arrests’ during mass deportations.

“It is not okay to be in this country illegally.”

So Trump’s Deportation Czar Tom Homan says it’s impossible to dramatically increase deportations with the current funding levels for DHS, so he needs a lot more money from Congress before he can do it. Which is exactly what the bipartisan border bill Trump killed was all about.

Migrants are currently blocking a major road in Fresno, California to protest deportations https://t.co/1TytbSoHeF

Trump is planning 100 executive orders starting Day 1 on border, deportations and other priorities — Democrats must stop playing nice and start resisting. A new, younger and more combative leadership is needed in the party.  https://t.co/YgG5hZTRkT

Do you support workplace raids for mass deportations? 

https://t.co/VgEDUoDscr

1.4 million deportations over 4 years works out to about 350,000 per year.

For reference, deportation targets during the first Trump administration were 250,000 per year.

Much more is needed just to undo the Biden border invasion. We must not become complacent! https://t.co/7HtbrDD2YU

President Donald Trump publicly criticizes the Supreme Court for blocking mass deportations, arguing it's impossible to try every illegal migrant and defending his policy against judicial interference. The decision, deemed 'hastily and prematurely' by Justice Alito, has sparked intense debate, with supporters pushing for deportations of criminal immigrants and opponents questioning the legal and ethical implications.

Trump Challenges Deportation Ruling

🚨Stephen Miller just called out what the Left's strategy is in regards to deportations:

"They're all gang members. They're all foreign terrorists. And now we are being told that they cannot be expelled from our country without an extraordinary amount of individualized https://t.co/sKHnjy6rwi

Trump hasn't even scratched the surface of what can be done to increase self-deportations:
&gt; e-verify
&gt; tax remittances
&gt; raid businesses
&gt; require landlord verification of immigration status
&gt; offer payouts 
many more - let's get creative! 👇

JUST IN: Radical Judge Who Blocked Trump Mass Deportations Busted In New Scandal 
https://t.co/U9NKZSWivN

We elected Donald Trump on the promise of mass deportations

Therefore, the Supreme Court isn’t ruling against Trump, they’re ruling against the people of the United States, who watched our country get flooded with illegals and elected Trump to get them out

Just pathetic.

Of all the thousands of deportations, why is the left fixated on this one to El Salvador? Is it possible there's more to the story with this guy? Was he connected with them on some level? I have no idea, but this melt down the Dems are having doesn't add up to me.

And there it is…now Trump on deportations saying "we cannot give everyone a trial" https://t.co/eeLc5TWWZ7

Alito calls Supreme Court ruling that blocked Trump deportations 'hastily and prematurely' decided https://t.co/tgPVLXqhpz

The West Wing told staffers to hammer its messaging about deportations, migrants, even Greenland—really, any issue that could distract from an economy left quaking by Trump’s trade war–inducing tariffs

Signalgate: the Sequel is not what they had in mind https://t.co/HRGCjVvg2M

BREAKING 🚨 Donald Trump exposed how corrupt the Judicial system is for allowing millions of illegals into America but we can’t send them back 

IGNORE THE JUDGES, ALL OF THEM

I VOTED FOR DEPORTATIONS https://t.co/jVnPCX0tds

Deputy Chief of Staff @StephenM on the Supreme Court pausing deportations of criminal illegal immigrant gang members: "No American citizen receives this level of so-called 'due process.' This isn't due process — this is called 'infinity process' to keep you here forever!" https://t.co/3qzEVybLSu

“We have a young man here in Knoxville, Tennessee, I know his mom and dad. He was killed by an illegal. And, you know, I keep wondering, what about those people's constitutional rights?”

@timburchett discusses the Supreme Court’s weekend decision on deportations. https://t.co/Kr3ojG7YPD

LAWFARE: Democrat judge blocks NYC Mayor Adams from cooperating with ICE to remove TdA and MS-13 terrorists from Rikers Island and other New York City jails. Judge Mary Rosado worried the cooperation would open the floodgates for mass deportations at the city's jails. https://t.co/mPZjYUxXEN

Alito Calls Supreme Court Block of Venezuelan Gang Deportations ‘Legally Questionable’ https://t.co/ctkg88Id9n

While democrats and rogue judges are working hard to stop deportations, our @HouseGOP is on vacation. 

Why do we pay them?

Deportations are the only option for saving the country 

Tariff’s that can actually restore industry, foreign policy sanity, cleansing progressive ideology from universities , dismantling the administrative state 

I’m here for it, but without deportations nothing else matters

Pakistan is currently carrying out mass deportations of Afghans. Around 700 to 800 families are being deported each day, and 80,000 have already left voluntarily.

If they can manage it, so can we. https://t.co/NtCasrUfSA

Trump slams Supreme Court over deportations, says it is 'not possible' to try every illegal migrant https://t.co/08QkSp7por

Here, and only here, at @Rasmussen_Poll.

Americans overwhelmingly agree the deportations and incarcerations of criminal aliens are a "liberation." https://t.co/Q2kY07bB8d

Missed message: Democratic base demands  deportations of bad guys @Rasmussen_Poll 

- Democrats 69%
- Hispanics 77%
- Blacks 71%
- Liberals 62%
- Younger voters 70%

Parading to Abrego Garcia’s jail in El Salvador isn’t working.
https://t.co/qUJwxHKBD4 via @dcexaminer https://t.co/HoXu9SgRFN

🇺🇸 ICE BUS TURNS AROUND MID-ROUTE AS SUPREME COURT FREEZES VENEZUELAN DEPORTATIONS

The White House asked the Supreme Court to unfreeze deportation flights for a group of Venezuelans—some accused of gang ties. 

One bus had already left Texas’ Blue Bonnet Detention Facility https://t.co/h3wp18sDLE https://t.co/dGGBOnNILf

President Trump and his administration are aggressively pursuing mass deportations, with ICE executing large-scale arrests, such as 1,461 in Massachusetts, and officials like Kristi Noem confirming plans to enforce strict immigration laws. A recent terror attack in Boulder by an illegal immigrant has intensified calls for deportations, with Trump demanding continued action and public support for military involvement growing.

Administration Aggresively Pursues

If the Trump administration needs help with deportations, I can set up a program that would mobilize and recruit a million+ freedom loving Americans to support the effort over the next four years.

🇺🇸This is OUR country🇺🇸

There are pathetically just 5,382 staff employed by Immigration Enforcement.

This must be increased tenfold - with a new annual budget of £6.6bn and 50,000 staff working in Immigration Enforcement across the UK.

Mass deportations won't be cheap, but it's worth every penny.

🚨BREAKING: @Sec_Noem: "We Are Going to Do Mass Deportations"

Homeland Security Secretary lays out the plan. It's taken a few weeks to ramp up, but here it comes...

🧵 Read on... https://t.co/4V3oqYa8B5

It’s time to triple down on deportations.

All gas. No brakes.

They have to go.

They were warned.

No sob stories.

We don’t want to hear it.

Got to go.

🚨 JUST IN: ICE's Acting Director just SLAMMED Boston for trying to BLOCK deportations

"Officials would rather release s*x offenders, fentanyl dealers, human traffickers and child r*pists back into the neighborhoods."

Sanctuary city Mayors should be ARRESTED for obstruction. https://t.co/XzriuQh90w

Would you support President Trump mobilizing the military to help speed up Mass Deportations ?

YES or NO ? https://t.co/8w8Ki4n9pr

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller reportedly berated ICE agents for insufficient deportations, asking, “Why aren’t you at Home Depot? Why aren’t you at 7-Eleven?”

After Tom Homan stressed that the administration would only target criminals, Miller pushed for https://t.co/FgakJRgORG

ICE expeditiously executes the largest arrest of illegal immigrants in US history in the sanctuary state of Massachusetts.

Be honest, did you vote for this? 

- 1461 people arrested.

- 790 of them had criminal convictions

- 277 final orders for deportations. https://t.co/D2z0DoKNDl

Trump’s America tells the world: “We don’t need you.” Now the world is answering back: “Same to you.” From student deportations to tourist boycotts and brand backlash, we’re paying the price for Trump’s hostility. Read more (link in reply): https://t.co/a4ADVbH3U2

The border may be secure but the homeland is not. Congress must fully support the funding necessary to fulfill the mass deportations President Trump promised. Delay in the Senate only puts more Americans at risk. https://t.co/VVhVO9biAz

It is impossible to know how many Radical Islamic terrorists are residing in America after four years of Biden’s open borders.

What happened in Boulder yesterday is horrific and only underscores the need for MASS DEPORTATIONS of EVERY CRIMINAL ILLEGAL in our nation!

BREAKING 🚨 Department of Homeland Security has confirmed that Mohamad Soliman is an illegal Alien from Egypt

‘We The People’ DEMAND Mass Deportations https://t.co/L6p7k77RHT

BREAKING: Trump says Boulder terror attack 'will not be tolerated,' deportations must continue https://t.co/S1f2mvomSI

Do you support President Trump deploying the military to accelerate mass deportations?

A. Yes
B. No https://t.co/89MioxcuKI

REMINDER: The One Big Beautiful Bill will help accelerate deportations to one million annually and give ICE the resources it needs for personnel, immigration detention, and deportation flights. https://t.co/sbeds55Cyg

Department of Homeland Security has confirmed that the Boulder, Colorado attacker Mohamad Soliman is an illegal Alien from Egypt,

'We The People' DEMAND
Mass Deportations!

Would you support mobilizing the military to speed up Mass Deportations? 

A. Yes- remove them all
B. No https://t.co/qaLNmbYuaW

Would you support President Trump mobilizing the military to help speed up Mass Deportations ?

YES or NO ? https://t.co/WdVLtph9MH

Trump says Boulder terror attack 'will not be tolerated,' deportations must continue https://t.co/041VQc8SsX

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

GFTO of MY Country!!!

The Supreme Court is not the President.
Keep up the deportations, they NEED to continue, Mr. President!

We need to deport a lot more people. A lot more, and fast.
At their current rate, the Trump administration will have deported just a couple million by the end of his term.
That's a piss in the ocean. 
We need at least 20-50 million deportations and we are nowhere close.

THREAD

Inside Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem's private meeting with ICE officials

Sources say ICE is crumbling on the inside, employees aren't good at their jobs, WH has valid complaints but also keeps moving the goal post on deportations

https://t.co/ySWuXdFAOG

1/7

WATCH: Kristi Noem claims mass deportations are on the way as President Trump enforces the law.

"The President is doing exactly what he campaigned on, and what the American people elected him to do, and that's enforce the law. And so, we are going to do mass deportations... We https://t.co/Ofibr6sRED

ICE announces they arrested 1,461 illegals in Massachusetts as “Operation Patriot” wraps up.

This included 790 illegals who had criminal convictions or charges.

There can never be enough deportations, until they’re all deported.

Keep pushing forward ICE!https://t.co/MQS0GCXwYe

DHS Kristi Noem: "POTUS is doing exactly what he campaigned on, and what the American people elected him to do, and that's enforce the law. And so, we are going to do mass deportations... We are going out there and ensuring that people that repeatedly break our laws are being https://t.co/NzbuMqD5p0

The Boulder terror suspect isn't the only illegal alien terrorist in the United States.

That's why the Senate must pass President @realDonaldTrump's Big Beautiful Bill as soon as possible to SUPERCHARGE deportations.

The Trump administration is pushing the Supreme Court to allow deportations to third countries, even if they're not a migrant’s home nation—sparking a legal battle over rights, due process, and fears of torture or persecution.

Details: https://t.co/EGsuCdaVDj

#WashingtonEye https://t.co/hoIj8pI23s

President Trump is intensifying efforts for mass deportations, with over 14,000 migrants already deported via Mexico and an executive order eliminating federal benefits for illegal immigrants to encourage self-deportation. Despite rising arrests and redeployment of Homeland Security agents to focus on deportations, challenges persist as immigration officers fall short of expectations, prompting criticism over the slow pace and calls for increased action.

Intensified Efforts

Spare me the outrage about deportations…

Trump could deport ~15 MILLION illegal immigrants and we would only get back to where we were when Biden took office in 2021.

Think about how insane that is.
This isn’t a lawless charity. This is a nation.

$5,000 checks for every American would cost $1.7 trillion

Put that money towards paying down the national debt, mass deportations, and financial restitution for the victims of the COVID vaccines instead

President Trump has privately expressed serious disappointment with the pace of deportations and the lack of competence among the leadership staff at Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

In light of those criticisms, I wish to volunteer my services to the President.

In https://t.co/xH059phKmg

We've got to start pushing back on the poor performance of deportations. It's been a month. Plenty of time to ramp up the operation. We were promised MASS deportations. Other great things are happening, but this was the central campaign promise. We can't let DOGE or anything else

An Executive Order is coming tonight that will eliminate all federal taxpayer benefits going to illegal aliens.

Let the self-deportations begin! https://t.co/jWu0zYT5OO

Trump shows the US gov't has huge power to solve problems --when it wants. 
His migrant inflow is near zero, and his deportations are rising, after 4 years when Biden's people claimed they were doing all they could. 
Next: Fix white-collar migration &amp; #H1B
https://t.co/6rUt9utDTt

USA Today reports Homeland Security has dropped drug, terrorism, and human trafficking investigations to assign “its entire investigations division” to work on deportations. 

https://t.co/bQRG20igDb

Trump’s promises to ramp up deportations of migrants enjoys relatively high support, but the share of those who think the economy is on the wrong track rose to 53%, up 10% from January, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. US inflation rose unexpectedly last month, and the

Immigration officers are falling short of Trump's expectations for mass deportations

Trump has called for sweeping efforts to detain and deport migrants in the U.S. without legal status. Arrests are up, but the crackdown is also running into challenges.
https://t.co/UvNmGR5WXy

Senate GOP Pushes Ahead with Budget Bill That Funds Trump's Mass Deportations and Border Wall https://t.co/tiOPBocQCU

We were promised MASS DEPORTATIONS

This was the primary promise.

@realDonaldTrump  

I’m no mathematician, but 500 a day will not get rid of 30,000,000 in 4 years.

730,000 is the pace we’re on.

Must get these numbers up. https://t.co/6pVuzZOqVl

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. 

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Elon Musk from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New York City Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Zohran Mamdani from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Zohran Mamdani be deported by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 4 (inclusive) and 6 (inclusive) SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2025 report is issued. Once the December 2025 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2025 is not issued by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Trump divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if US Representative Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Ilhan Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31?

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs.

This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method.  

Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025?

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on December 5, 2025.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market

Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on December 5, 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Donald Trump has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Trump on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump reopen Alcatraz in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

<250k
$879,568 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

250-500k
$942,452 Vol.
76%
0123456789
%

500-750k
$352,767 Vol.
19%
0123456789
%

750k-1m
$328,227 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

1-1.25m
$326,156 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

1.25-1.5m
$277,344 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

1.5-1.75m
$279,860 Vol.
<1%

1.75-2m
$240,534 Vol.
<1%

2m+
$258,358 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Rules

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

About

Related

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

<250k$879,568 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.8¢buy No98.0¢

250-500k$942,452 Vol.76%0123456789%buy Yes76¢buy No25¢

500-750k$352,767 Vol.19%0123456789%buy Yes19.0¢buy No81.6¢

750k-1m$328,227 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.0¢buy No99.4¢

1-1.25m$326,156 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.6¢buy No99.5¢

1.25-1.5m$277,344 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.6¢

1.5-1.75m$279,860 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.6¢

1.75-2m$240,534 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.6¢

2m+$258,358 Vol.3%0123456789%buy Yes3.4¢buy No98.3¢

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Rules

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

About

Related

<250k
$879,568 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

250-500k
$942,452 Vol.
76%
0123456789
%

500-750k
$352,767 Vol.
19%
0123456789
%

750k-1m
$328,227 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

1-1.25m
$326,156 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

1.25-1.5m
$277,344 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

1.5-1.75m
$279,860 Vol.
<1%

1.75-2m
$240,534 Vol.
<1%

2m+
$258,358 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%