Name: How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-05T19:47:34.719608Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the prediction of the number of people Trump will deport in 2025.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

<250k

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 250,000 (inclusive) and 500,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

250-500k

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 500,000 (inclusive) and 750,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

500-750k

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 750,000 (inclusive) and 1,000,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

750k-1m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,00,000 (inclusive) and 1,250,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1-1.25m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,750,000 (inclusive) and 2,000,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1.75-2m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,250,000 (inclusive) and 1,500,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1.25-1.5m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,500,000 (inclusive) and 1,750,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

1.5-1.75m

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 2,000,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Deportation Count

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, has proposed a $25 billion plan to the Trump Administration for mass deportations, utilizing military bases as processing camps, a fleet of 100 planes, and a private citizen army to deport up to 12 million undocumented immigrants by 2026. The proposal has sparked significant attention and support among conservative circles, while facing opposition from some local leaders and activists who vow to obstruct deportation efforts.

Prince Proposal

Karoline keeps dropping heat🔥

Reporter says illegal aliens are being put in “cages” at Guantanamo Bay

Karoline’s like yeah, they broke into this country and committed heinous crimes like rape

This is why 70%+ support Trump’s mass deportations
 https://t.co/elx1Nxe88P

JUST IN: Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 https://t.co/lIs2vy6GcM

Erik Prince is offering Trump the largest private military company in the world to assist with Deportations

Report on Jesse Watters, said Trump wants to accelerate deportations

Blackwater evacuated Americans abandoned by Biden in Afghanistan

I hope Trump accepts his offer 👍 https://t.co/m5i7BB7QCy

Blackwater founder Erik Prince has offered to privatize mass deportations for the White House.

His proposal includes using “processing camps,” a fleet of 100 planes, and an “army” of private citizens to find and remove illegals. The offer carries a price tag of $25 billion. https://t.co/CJRUHEI4pi

BREAKING: Blackwater founder Erik Prince has offered to privatize mass deportations for the White House.

Deporting 10 million illegal immigrants would reduce the national debt by more than $1.3 trillion.

Mass deportations are a fiscally conservative policy. https://t.co/j5knqcodjH https://t.co/NTZtlRtX01

BREAKING: Erik Prince, the head of Blackwater, has offered the Trump Administration his company’s help with deportations, using military bases as processing centers and a fleet of 100 planes.

Now this is epic.

Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 million https://t.co/nVKMcTRylo

Erik Prince is offering Trump a huge private military outfit to turbocharge deportations—aiming for 12 million gone by 2026, complete with processing camps, 100 planes, and a deputized posse. Jesse Watters on Fox is hyping Trump’s push to accelerate the crackdown. Prince’s https://t.co/CM8Zn1rjqB

🚨BREAKING: Denver Mayor Mike Johnson Says, "I am willing to go to jail to block deportations." 

What's your response to Mike? https://t.co/IIBLFqTFVF

Anti-ICE organizer brags on local TV about an operation to obstruct the deportations.

Arrest them all.

https://t.co/HBJoGCFjKs

🚨SHOCKING: Whistleblower EXPOSES Agency Leaders Letting FBI Agents REFUSE to Help with MASS DEPORTATIONS:

"If you have an objection you don't have to do it. They'll ask for volunteers who get labeled MAGA Nazis. Opt out on their way to a raid.. disrupting the whole thing." https://t.co/Qg6BYI3e7o

The Trump admin needs to do everything it can to meet the flagship promise of mass deportations. If Prince is willing and the price is right, let him. These people need to be gone, whether it’s ICE or a PMC that gets them. https://t.co/VSocSVQM6W

NEW: A group of influential military contractors, including former Blackwater CEO Erik Prince, proposed a plan to the Trump White House for mass deportations using “processing camps” on military bases, a private fleet of 100 planes, and a “small army” of private citizens https://t.co/Na8TJ9he9w

🚨Update: Blackwater Founder Erik Prince proposes to privatize mass deportations for $25 BILLION! 

Plan includes ‘private fleet’ of 100 planes, ‘processing camps’ and private citizen ‘army’ to track and remove illegals from US! https://t.co/X3oIgL6grf

Blackwater’s Erik Prince proposes to privatize mass deportations for $25 BILLION

Plan includes ‘private fleet’ of 100 planes, ‘processing camps’ and private citizen ‘army’ to track and remove illegals from US https://t.co/z0LHjfdH0h

Posobiec Calls for "Pedal to the Metal" on Mass Deportations

"I love that they've gone after the worst of the worst, but I want to see those numbers go up, up, up," @JackPosobiec told Border Hawk https://t.co/ZUi4kpi5Y1

JUST IN: Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 https://t.co/zYGMZJnNWo

Now we're talking. Six million deportations per year for four years = 24 million deportations. Problem solved by the end of Trump's term. @POTUS needs to go all in on this. https://t.co/90jGZ5BHwW

🚨Update: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departing Joint Base Andrews to visit the US base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba! He will inspect 'operations supporting illegal immigrant deportations!’ 
https://t.co/iH2dfzy2hp

JUST IN: Blackwater CEO Erik Prince has offered the Trump Administration his company's services to conduct deportations.

Prince's proposal involves using military bases as processing camps and a fleet of 100 planes. 500k illegals would be deported PER MONTH for a total of 12 https://t.co/5sare69zz0

SCOOP: A group of military contractors, including Erik Prince, has pitched the White House on a proposal to carry out mass deportations through “processing camps” on military bases, a fleet of 100 planes, and a private “small army”  https://t.co/ss8b6nvBJL @DashaBurns @MyahWard

Leaked $25B Military Contractor Pitch Promises Trump 12 Million Deportations By Midterms: Report https://t.co/oOOo07cnGx via @mediaite

..@RealErikDPrince says the private sector can help President Trump with mass deportations. Prince, the founder of private military contractor Academi, formerly known as Blackwater, joins “On Balance” to discuss his proposal to assist Trump.

MORE: https://t.co/jMJrTtogLr https://t.co/1pg1Yznos9

President-elect Donald Trump is preparing over 100 executive orders to initiate mass deportations and strengthen border policies starting Day 1, with Border Czar Tom Homan confirming plans for workplace raids and collateral arrests despite funding challenges. Meanwhile, California Governor Gavin Newsom and state legislators have allocated up to $50 million to legally counter Trump's deportation agenda, as protests erupt in Fresno and Democrats call for stronger resistance.

Mass Deportation Plans

BREAKING: California Gov. Gavin Newsom and state legislative leaders have agreed to set aside $50 million to fight Trump’s agenda, including deportations, per POLITICO.

🚨UNREAL: While LA is being devastated by fires, Newsom and CA legislators reach an agreement to allocate $50M to “Trump-proof” California.

The funds will be used to fight Trump and looming deportations in court.

From Politico:

"Gov. Gavin Newsom and state legislative leaders https://t.co/fLx1HKcM2Z

JUST IN: JD Vance prepares the public for a major media narrative coming our way when Trump enacts mass deportations.

He's right.

"This term is something you're gonna hear a lot - 'family separation.' It's important - that's a euphemism. That is a dishonest term to hide behind https://t.co/fMAmzefwDl

BREAKING: On Friday, while wildfires raged on, California lawmakers met to set aside $25 million to help battle Trump's deportations, and create a 'Trump litigation website' - KCRA

BREAKING: Trump’s Border Czar Tom Homan says there will be ‘collateral arrests’ during mass deportations.

“It is not okay to be in this country illegally.”

So Trump’s Deportation Czar Tom Homan says it’s impossible to dramatically increase deportations with the current funding levels for DHS, so he needs a lot more money from Congress before he can do it. Which is exactly what the bipartisan border bill Trump killed was all about.

Migrants are currently blocking a major road in Fresno, California to protest deportations https://t.co/1TytbSoHeF

Trump is planning 100 executive orders starting Day 1 on border, deportations and other priorities — Democrats must stop playing nice and start resisting. A new, younger and more combative leadership is needed in the party.  https://t.co/YgG5hZTRkT

Do you support workplace raids for mass deportations? 

https://t.co/VgEDUoDscr

1.4 million deportations over 4 years works out to about 350,000 per year.

For reference, deportation targets during the first Trump administration were 250,000 per year.

Much more is needed just to undo the Biden border invasion. We must not become complacent! https://t.co/7HtbrDD2YU

President Donald Trump publicly criticizes the Supreme Court for blocking mass deportations, arguing it's impossible to try every illegal migrant and defending his policy against judicial interference. The decision, deemed 'hastily and prematurely' by Justice Alito, has sparked intense debate, with supporters pushing for deportations of criminal immigrants and opponents questioning the legal and ethical implications.

Trump Challenges Deportation Ruling

🚨Stephen Miller just called out what the Left's strategy is in regards to deportations:

"They're all gang members. They're all foreign terrorists. And now we are being told that they cannot be expelled from our country without an extraordinary amount of individualized https://t.co/sKHnjy6rwi

Trump hasn't even scratched the surface of what can be done to increase self-deportations:
&gt; e-verify
&gt; tax remittances
&gt; raid businesses
&gt; require landlord verification of immigration status
&gt; offer payouts 
many more - let's get creative! 👇

JUST IN: Radical Judge Who Blocked Trump Mass Deportations Busted In New Scandal 
https://t.co/U9NKZSWivN

We elected Donald Trump on the promise of mass deportations

Therefore, the Supreme Court isn’t ruling against Trump, they’re ruling against the people of the United States, who watched our country get flooded with illegals and elected Trump to get them out

Just pathetic.

Of all the thousands of deportations, why is the left fixated on this one to El Salvador? Is it possible there's more to the story with this guy? Was he connected with them on some level? I have no idea, but this melt down the Dems are having doesn't add up to me.

And there it is…now Trump on deportations saying "we cannot give everyone a trial" https://t.co/eeLc5TWWZ7

Alito calls Supreme Court ruling that blocked Trump deportations 'hastily and prematurely' decided https://t.co/tgPVLXqhpz

The West Wing told staffers to hammer its messaging about deportations, migrants, even Greenland—really, any issue that could distract from an economy left quaking by Trump’s trade war–inducing tariffs

Signalgate: the Sequel is not what they had in mind https://t.co/HRGCjVvg2M

BREAKING 🚨 Donald Trump exposed how corrupt the Judicial system is for allowing millions of illegals into America but we can’t send them back 

IGNORE THE JUDGES, ALL OF THEM

I VOTED FOR DEPORTATIONS https://t.co/jVnPCX0tds

Deputy Chief of Staff @StephenM on the Supreme Court pausing deportations of criminal illegal immigrant gang members: "No American citizen receives this level of so-called 'due process.' This isn't due process — this is called 'infinity process' to keep you here forever!" https://t.co/3qzEVybLSu

“We have a young man here in Knoxville, Tennessee, I know his mom and dad. He was killed by an illegal. And, you know, I keep wondering, what about those people's constitutional rights?”

@timburchett discusses the Supreme Court’s weekend decision on deportations. https://t.co/Kr3ojG7YPD

LAWFARE: Democrat judge blocks NYC Mayor Adams from cooperating with ICE to remove TdA and MS-13 terrorists from Rikers Island and other New York City jails. Judge Mary Rosado worried the cooperation would open the floodgates for mass deportations at the city's jails. https://t.co/mPZjYUxXEN

Alito Calls Supreme Court Block of Venezuelan Gang Deportations ‘Legally Questionable’ https://t.co/ctkg88Id9n

While democrats and rogue judges are working hard to stop deportations, our @HouseGOP is on vacation. 

Why do we pay them?

Deportations are the only option for saving the country 

Tariff’s that can actually restore industry, foreign policy sanity, cleansing progressive ideology from universities , dismantling the administrative state 

I’m here for it, but without deportations nothing else matters

Pakistan is currently carrying out mass deportations of Afghans. Around 700 to 800 families are being deported each day, and 80,000 have already left voluntarily.

If they can manage it, so can we. https://t.co/NtCasrUfSA

Trump slams Supreme Court over deportations, says it is 'not possible' to try every illegal migrant https://t.co/08QkSp7por

Here, and only here, at @Rasmussen_Poll.

Americans overwhelmingly agree the deportations and incarcerations of criminal aliens are a "liberation." https://t.co/Q2kY07bB8d

Missed message: Democratic base demands  deportations of bad guys @Rasmussen_Poll 

- Democrats 69%
- Hispanics 77%
- Blacks 71%
- Liberals 62%
- Younger voters 70%

Parading to Abrego Garcia’s jail in El Salvador isn’t working.
https://t.co/qUJwxHKBD4 via @dcexaminer https://t.co/HoXu9SgRFN

🇺🇸 ICE BUS TURNS AROUND MID-ROUTE AS SUPREME COURT FREEZES VENEZUELAN DEPORTATIONS

The White House asked the Supreme Court to unfreeze deportation flights for a group of Venezuelans—some accused of gang ties. 

One bus had already left Texas’ Blue Bonnet Detention Facility https://t.co/h3wp18sDLE https://t.co/dGGBOnNILf

President Trump and his administration are aggressively pursuing mass deportations, with ICE executing large-scale arrests, such as 1,461 in Massachusetts, and officials like Kristi Noem confirming plans to enforce strict immigration laws. A recent terror attack in Boulder by an illegal immigrant has intensified calls for deportations, with Trump demanding continued action and public support for military involvement growing.

Administration Aggresively Pursues

If the Trump administration needs help with deportations, I can set up a program that would mobilize and recruit a million+ freedom loving Americans to support the effort over the next four years.

🇺🇸This is OUR country🇺🇸

There are pathetically just 5,382 staff employed by Immigration Enforcement.

This must be increased tenfold - with a new annual budget of £6.6bn and 50,000 staff working in Immigration Enforcement across the UK.

Mass deportations won't be cheap, but it's worth every penny.

🚨BREAKING: @Sec_Noem: "We Are Going to Do Mass Deportations"

Homeland Security Secretary lays out the plan. It's taken a few weeks to ramp up, but here it comes...

🧵 Read on... https://t.co/4V3oqYa8B5

It’s time to triple down on deportations.

All gas. No brakes.

They have to go.

They were warned.

No sob stories.

We don’t want to hear it.

Got to go.

🚨 JUST IN: ICE's Acting Director just SLAMMED Boston for trying to BLOCK deportations

"Officials would rather release s*x offenders, fentanyl dealers, human traffickers and child r*pists back into the neighborhoods."

Sanctuary city Mayors should be ARRESTED for obstruction. https://t.co/XzriuQh90w

Would you support President Trump mobilizing the military to help speed up Mass Deportations ?

YES or NO ? https://t.co/8w8Ki4n9pr

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller reportedly berated ICE agents for insufficient deportations, asking, “Why aren’t you at Home Depot? Why aren’t you at 7-Eleven?”

After Tom Homan stressed that the administration would only target criminals, Miller pushed for https://t.co/FgakJRgORG

ICE expeditiously executes the largest arrest of illegal immigrants in US history in the sanctuary state of Massachusetts.

Be honest, did you vote for this? 

- 1461 people arrested.

- 790 of them had criminal convictions

- 277 final orders for deportations. https://t.co/D2z0DoKNDl

Trump’s America tells the world: “We don’t need you.” Now the world is answering back: “Same to you.” From student deportations to tourist boycotts and brand backlash, we’re paying the price for Trump’s hostility. Read more (link in reply): https://t.co/a4ADVbH3U2

The border may be secure but the homeland is not. Congress must fully support the funding necessary to fulfill the mass deportations President Trump promised. Delay in the Senate only puts more Americans at risk. https://t.co/VVhVO9biAz

It is impossible to know how many Radical Islamic terrorists are residing in America after four years of Biden’s open borders.

What happened in Boulder yesterday is horrific and only underscores the need for MASS DEPORTATIONS of EVERY CRIMINAL ILLEGAL in our nation!

BREAKING 🚨 Department of Homeland Security has confirmed that Mohamad Soliman is an illegal Alien from Egypt

‘We The People’ DEMAND Mass Deportations https://t.co/L6p7k77RHT

BREAKING: Trump says Boulder terror attack 'will not be tolerated,' deportations must continue https://t.co/S1f2mvomSI

Do you support President Trump deploying the military to accelerate mass deportations?

A. Yes
B. No https://t.co/89MioxcuKI

REMINDER: The One Big Beautiful Bill will help accelerate deportations to one million annually and give ICE the resources it needs for personnel, immigration detention, and deportation flights. https://t.co/sbeds55Cyg

Department of Homeland Security has confirmed that the Boulder, Colorado attacker Mohamad Soliman is an illegal Alien from Egypt,

'We The People' DEMAND
Mass Deportations!

Would you support mobilizing the military to speed up Mass Deportations? 

A. Yes- remove them all
B. No https://t.co/qaLNmbYuaW

Would you support President Trump mobilizing the military to help speed up Mass Deportations ?

YES or NO ? https://t.co/WdVLtph9MH

Trump says Boulder terror attack 'will not be tolerated,' deportations must continue https://t.co/041VQc8SsX

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

MASS DEPORTATIONS 

GFTO of MY Country!!!

The Supreme Court is not the President.
Keep up the deportations, they NEED to continue, Mr. President!

We need to deport a lot more people. A lot more, and fast.
At their current rate, the Trump administration will have deported just a couple million by the end of his term.
That's a piss in the ocean. 
We need at least 20-50 million deportations and we are nowhere close.

THREAD

Inside Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem's private meeting with ICE officials

Sources say ICE is crumbling on the inside, employees aren't good at their jobs, WH has valid complaints but also keeps moving the goal post on deportations

https://t.co/ySWuXdFAOG

1/7

WATCH: Kristi Noem claims mass deportations are on the way as President Trump enforces the law.

"The President is doing exactly what he campaigned on, and what the American people elected him to do, and that's enforce the law. And so, we are going to do mass deportations... We https://t.co/Ofibr6sRED

ICE announces they arrested 1,461 illegals in Massachusetts as “Operation Patriot” wraps up.

This included 790 illegals who had criminal convictions or charges.

There can never be enough deportations, until they’re all deported.

Keep pushing forward ICE!https://t.co/MQS0GCXwYe

DHS Kristi Noem: "POTUS is doing exactly what he campaigned on, and what the American people elected him to do, and that's enforce the law. And so, we are going to do mass deportations... We are going out there and ensuring that people that repeatedly break our laws are being https://t.co/NzbuMqD5p0

The Boulder terror suspect isn't the only illegal alien terrorist in the United States.

That's why the Senate must pass President @realDonaldTrump's Big Beautiful Bill as soon as possible to SUPERCHARGE deportations.

The Trump administration is pushing the Supreme Court to allow deportations to third countries, even if they're not a migrant’s home nation—sparking a legal battle over rights, due process, and fears of torture or persecution.

Details: https://t.co/EGsuCdaVDj

#WashingtonEye https://t.co/hoIj8pI23s

President Trump is intensifying efforts for mass deportations, with over 14,000 migrants already deported via Mexico and an executive order eliminating federal benefits for illegal immigrants to encourage self-deportation. Despite rising arrests and redeployment of Homeland Security agents to focus on deportations, challenges persist as immigration officers fall short of expectations, prompting criticism over the slow pace and calls for increased action.

Intensified Efforts

Spare me the outrage about deportations…

Trump could deport ~15 MILLION illegal immigrants and we would only get back to where we were when Biden took office in 2021.

Think about how insane that is.
This isn’t a lawless charity. This is a nation.

$5,000 checks for every American would cost $1.7 trillion

Put that money towards paying down the national debt, mass deportations, and financial restitution for the victims of the COVID vaccines instead

President Trump has privately expressed serious disappointment with the pace of deportations and the lack of competence among the leadership staff at Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

In light of those criticisms, I wish to volunteer my services to the President.

In https://t.co/xH059phKmg

We've got to start pushing back on the poor performance of deportations. It's been a month. Plenty of time to ramp up the operation. We were promised MASS deportations. Other great things are happening, but this was the central campaign promise. We can't let DOGE or anything else

An Executive Order is coming tonight that will eliminate all federal taxpayer benefits going to illegal aliens.

Let the self-deportations begin! https://t.co/jWu0zYT5OO

Trump shows the US gov't has huge power to solve problems --when it wants. 
His migrant inflow is near zero, and his deportations are rising, after 4 years when Biden's people claimed they were doing all they could. 
Next: Fix white-collar migration &amp; #H1B
https://t.co/6rUt9utDTt

USA Today reports Homeland Security has dropped drug, terrorism, and human trafficking investigations to assign “its entire investigations division” to work on deportations. 

https://t.co/bQRG20igDb

Trump’s promises to ramp up deportations of migrants enjoys relatively high support, but the share of those who think the economy is on the wrong track rose to 53%, up 10% from January, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. US inflation rose unexpectedly last month, and the

Immigration officers are falling short of Trump's expectations for mass deportations

Trump has called for sweeping efforts to detain and deport migrants in the U.S. without legal status. Arrests are up, but the crackdown is also running into challenges.
https://t.co/UvNmGR5WXy

Senate GOP Pushes Ahead with Budget Bill That Funds Trump's Mass Deportations and Border Wall https://t.co/tiOPBocQCU

We were promised MASS DEPORTATIONS

This was the primary promise.

@realDonaldTrump  

I’m no mathematician, but 500 a day will not get rid of 30,000,000 in 4 years.

730,000 is the pace we’re on.

Must get these numbers up. https://t.co/6pVuzZOqVl

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Market News Update

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. 

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Virginia in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country named in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States” is fully removed from the list of countries subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A country will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove the country
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for that country
- Congress passes legislation lifting the restrictions for that country
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating the country is no longer subject to restrictions
- Nationals of the country resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as a country being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restriction of a specified country will suffice. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

Trump's travel ban removed by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, and the charged person is officially deported from the United States by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of a person from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone charged over daycare fraud in MN be deported by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,” individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority are fully removed from the list subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

People travelling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove them
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for them
- Congress passes legislation lifting their restrictions
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating they are no longer subject to restrictions
- People traveling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as the restrictions being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation at large or all restrictions for individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restrictions will suffice.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

Trump's new travel ban on Palestinians removed by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Donald Trump is expected to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address in late January or early February. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

On September 18, 2025, Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson announced that eight Minneapolis defendants were indicted for defrauding Minnesota’s housing stabilization program. It is rumored that some of these funds were used to fund the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab. You can read more about that here: https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab?.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Minnesota defendants who were indicted for fraud in this case are officially deported from the United States by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of any of the indicted persons from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.


Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?

An interview of Donald Trump by Tony Dokoupil on "CBS Evening News" is scheduled to air on January 13, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/13/trump-tony-dokoupil-cbs-evening-news/88162510007/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CBS, or otherwise is not released by January 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Tariff" or "Inflation" during CBS Evening News interview?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

duplicate Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

1) Public statements from both Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado announcing that they are sharing the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize or that the Nobel prize has been transferred to Trump.  

This does not require official confirmation from the Nobel Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee. 

Only statements from both Machado and Trump which demonstrate that they are currently sharing, will share, or have decided to share the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will count. Statements that merely express a desire to share the prize or otherwise endorse the idea of sharing, without clearly demonstrating an agreement to share or an active sharing of the prize, will not count.

2) A consensus of credible reporting or statements from both Machado and Trump confirm that the physical 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal has been transferred to Trump for permanent ownership or joint ownership with Machado.

3) The Nobel Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee officially recognize Donald Trump as a co-recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado, official information from the Nobel Peace Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee (https://www.nobelprize.org/), and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.


Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

<250k
$947,781 Vol.
3%

250-500k
$1,045,632 Vol.
87%

500-750k
$439,909 Vol.
6%

750k-1m
$386,041 Vol.
1%

1-1.25m
$373,775 Vol.
<1%

1.25-1.5m
$320,399 Vol.
1%

1.5-1.75m
$349,285 Vol.
1%

1.75-2m
$293,397 Vol.
1%

2m+
$304,881 Vol.
1%

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Rules

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

About

Related

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

<250k$947,781 Vol.3%buy Yes4.0¢buy No98.4¢

250-500k$1,045,632 Vol.87%buy Yes87.3¢buy No13.6¢

500-750k$439,909 Vol.6%buy Yes7.1¢buy No95.0¢

750k-1m$386,041 Vol.1%buy Yes1.0¢buy No99.5¢

1-1.25m$373,775 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.8¢

1.25-1.5m$320,399 Vol.1%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.8¢

1.5-1.75m$349,285 Vol.1%buy Yes0.8¢buy No99.8¢

1.75-2m$293,397 Vol.1%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.7¢

2m+$304,881 Vol.1%buy Yes1.0¢buy No99.6¢

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Rules

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Market Context

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

About

Related

<250k
$947,781 Vol.
3%

250-500k
$1,045,632 Vol.
87%

500-750k
$439,909 Vol.
6%

750k-1m
$386,041 Vol.
1%

1-1.25m
$373,775 Vol.
<1%

1.25-1.5m
$320,399 Vol.
1%

1.5-1.75m
$349,285 Vol.
1%

1.75-2m
$293,397 Vol.
1%

2m+
$304,881 Vol.
1%