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Climate & Science·Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Market icon
Climate & Science·Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11–13 31%

14–16 26%

8–10 20%

17–19 16%

Polymarket

$1,089,025 Vol.

11–13 31%

14–16 26%

8–10 20%

17–19 16%

Polymarket

$1,089,025 Vol.

<5

$160,765 Vol.

<1%

5–7

$62,879 Vol.

3%

8–10

$117,422 Vol.

20%

11–13

$376,942 Vol.

31%

14–16

$126,471 Vol.

26%

17–19

$194,811 Vol.

16%

20+

$49,735 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward 11–13 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 at 30.5%, closely trailed by 14–16 at 25.5%, reflecting a slower-than-average start to the year per USGS data, with only two events recorded through late March: a deep 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and a 7.0 beneath Malaysia on February 22. This below-pace activity—versus the historical baseline of about 16 annually—fuels bets on mid-teens totals, though Poisson-distributed seismicity along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire introduces high variance, with clusters or swarms potentially pushing counts higher. Lower bins like 8–10 (20%) account for prolonged quiet spells seen early 2026, while USGS real-time catalog updates and magnitude revisions will clarify trajectories amid inherent forecasting limits.

Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward 11–13 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 at 30.5%, closely trailed by 14–16 at 25.5%, reflecting a slower-than-average start to the year per USGS data, with only two events recorded through late March: a deep 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and a 7.0 beneath Malaysia on February 22. This below-pace activity—versus the historical baseline of about 16 annually—fuels bets on mid-teens totals, though Poisson-distributed seismicity along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire introduces high variance, with clusters or swarms potentially pushing counts higher. Lower bins like 8–10 (20%) account for prolonged quiet spells seen early 2026, while USGS real-time catalog updates and magnitude revisions will clarify trajectories amid inherent forecasting limits.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward 11–13 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 at 30.5%, closely trailed by 14–16 at 25.5%, reflecting a slower-than-average start to the year per USGS data, with only two events recorded through late March: a deep 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and a 7.0 beneath Malaysia on February 22. This below-pace activity—versus the historical baseline of about 16 annually—fuels bets on mid-teens totals, though Poisson-distributed seismicity along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire introduces high variance, with clusters or swarms potentially pushing counts higher. Lower bins like 8–10 (20%) account for prolonged quiet spells seen early 2026, while USGS real-time catalog updates and magnitude revisions will clarify trajectories amid inherent forecasting limits.

Trader consensus on Polymarket leans toward 11–13 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 at 30.5%, closely trailed by 14–16 at 25.5%, reflecting a slower-than-average start to the year per USGS data, with only two events recorded through late March: a deep 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and a 7.0 beneath Malaysia on February 22. This below-pace activity—versus the historical baseline of about 16 annually—fuels bets on mid-teens totals, though Poisson-distributed seismicity along plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire introduces high variance, with clusters or swarms potentially pushing counts higher. Lower bins like 8–10 (20%) account for prolonged quiet spells seen early 2026, while USGS real-time catalog updates and magnitude revisions will clarify trajectories amid inherent forecasting limits.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "11–13" at 31%, followed by "14–16" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" is "11–13" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14–16" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.