Market icon
Politics·Trump

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$39,377 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$39,377 Vol.

Polymarket

35%

$16,668 Vol.

34%

30%

$3,209 Vol.

13%

25%

$0 Vol.

6%

20%

$0 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's approval rating has hit second-term lows around 41% in recent polling averages, driven primarily by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran that began late February 2026, spiking gas prices and drawing widespread public opposition—net support for the war now stands at -14 amid ceasefire proposals and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Disapproval has surged among independents to record levels, compounded by backlash to mass deportations under DHS leadership changes and persistent inflation concerns, with net economic approval at -21. Heading into 2026 midterms, prolonged conflict escalation or further fuel hikes could push ratings lower, while de-escalation or policy wins might stabilize them; traders watch upcoming diplomatic talks and economic data closely.

President Trump's approval rating has hit second-term lows around 41% in recent polling averages, driven primarily by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran that began late February 2026, spiking gas prices and drawing widespread public opposition—net support for the war now stands at -14 amid ceasefire proposals and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Disapproval has surged among independents to record levels, compounded by backlash to mass deportations under DHS leadership changes and persistent inflation concerns, with net economic approval at -21. Heading into 2026 midterms, prolonged conflict escalation or further fuel hikes could push ratings lower, while de-escalation or policy wins might stabilize them; traders watch upcoming diplomatic talks and economic data closely.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's approval rating has hit second-term lows around 41% in recent polling averages, driven primarily by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran that began late February 2026, spiking gas prices and drawing widespread public opposition—net support for the war now stands at -14 amid ceasefire proposals and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Disapproval has surged among independents to record levels, compounded by backlash to mass deportations under DHS leadership changes and persistent inflation concerns, with net economic approval at -21. Heading into 2026 midterms, prolonged conflict escalation or further fuel hikes could push ratings lower, while de-escalation or policy wins might stabilize them; traders watch upcoming diplomatic talks and economic data closely.

President Trump's approval rating has hit second-term lows around 41% in recent polling averages, driven primarily by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran that began late February 2026, spiking gas prices and drawing widespread public opposition—net support for the war now stands at -14 amid ceasefire proposals and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Disapproval has surged among independents to record levels, compounded by backlash to mass deportations under DHS leadership changes and persistent inflation concerns, with net economic approval at -21. Heading into 2026 midterms, prolonged conflict escalation or further fuel hikes could push ratings lower, while de-escalation or policy wins might stabilize them; traders watch upcoming diplomatic talks and economic data closely.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

7%
Market icon

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

12%
Market icon

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

20%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40%" at 100%, followed by "35%" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" has generated $39.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" is "40%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35%" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.