How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Name: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Start: 2025-11-12T23:04:11.976Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$107,812 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

3.9%

$24,750 Vol.

61%

3.8%

$26,121 Vol.

39%

3.7%

$20,656 Vol.

46%

3.6%

$4,526 Vol.

20%

3.5%

$0 Vol.

18%

3.0%

$0 Vol.

14%

2.0%

$0 Vol.

11%

1.0%

$0 Vol.

$107,812 Vol.

3.9%

$24,750 Vol.

61%

3.8%

$26,121 Vol.

39%

3.7%

$20,656 Vol.

46%

3.6%

$4,526 Vol.

20%

3.5%

$0 Vol.

18%

3.0%

$0 Vol.

14%

2.0%

$0 Vol.

11%

1.0%

$0 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to a 2024 low of 3.97% on October 9 amid equity market turmoil, tariff escalation fears from President-elect Trump, and lingering effects of September's soft nonfarm payrolls (revised down by 78,000), before rebounding above 4.10% following hotter-than-expected September CPI (+2.4% headline y/y, +3.3% core) and PPI data on October 10–11. This volatility underscores trader sentiment pricing Federal Reserve easing—50 basis points cut on September 18, with Fed funds futures implying 90%+ odds of a 25bp reduction at the November 6–7 FOMC and 44bps total cuts by year-end—against resilient growth and sticky inflation. Through 2027, recession risks or deeper disinflation could pressure yields lower, with pivotal catalysts including November 1 jobs report, retail sales, and updated Fed dot plots.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 6:14 AM UTC

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?

41%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

23%

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

42%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.0%" at 100%, followed by "3.9%" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" has generated $107.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is "4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.9%" at 61%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $107.8K traded on “How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "4.0%" in the "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "4.0%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" market has a growing discussion of 5 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

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