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Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 29?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

20°C 36%

21°C 28%

19°C 24%

22°C or higher 8.6%

Polymarket

$65,293 Vol.

20°C 36%

21°C 28%

19°C 24%

22°C or higher 8.6%

Polymarket

$65,293 Vol.

12°C or below

$4,112 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$16,891 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$5,035 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$4,388 Vol.

<1%

16°C

$4,404 Vol.

<1%

17°C

$5,639 Vol.

1%

18°C

$6,605 Vol.

5%

19°C

$4,918 Vol.

24%

20°C

$4,223 Vol.

36%

21°C

$3,723 Vol.

28%

22°C or higher

$5,380 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued at 17:00 JST on March 28 projects a high of 21°C in Tokyo on March 29 under initially clear skies turning cloudy later, with low precipitation risk (under 20%), boosting trader-implied odds for mild outcomes amid weak high-pressure ridging and above-normal spring warmth (daily normal 16.7°C). Yet closely matched probabilities for 19°C (23.5%), 20°C (35.5%), and 21°C (28.0%) reflect ensemble uncertainty from global models like ECMWF and GFS centering 19-20°C, where sea breeze incursions from Tokyo Bay, variable afternoon cloud cover, and boundary layer mixing could cap peak solar heating by 1-2°C at the resolving Haneda Airport station. Final JMA updates overnight may sharpen consensus before observations finalize.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued at 17:00 JST on March 28 projects a high of 21°C in Tokyo on March 29 under initially clear skies turning cloudy later, with low precipitation risk (under 20%), boosting trader-implied odds for mild outcomes amid weak high-pressure ridging and above-normal spring warmth (daily normal 16.7°C). Yet closely matched probabilities for 19°C (23.5%), 20°C (35.5%), and 21°C (28.0%) reflect ensemble uncertainty from global models like ECMWF and GFS centering 19-20°C, where sea breeze incursions from Tokyo Bay, variable afternoon cloud cover, and boundary layer mixing could cap peak solar heating by 1-2°C at the resolving Haneda Airport station. Final JMA updates overnight may sharpen consensus before observations finalize.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued at 17:00 JST on March 28 projects a high of 21°C in Tokyo on March 29 under initially clear skies turning cloudy later, with low precipitation risk (under 20%), boosting trader-implied odds for mild outcomes amid weak high-pressure ridging and above-normal spring warmth (daily normal 16.7°C). Yet closely matched probabilities for 19°C (23.5%), 20°C (35.5%), and 21°C (28.0%) reflect ensemble uncertainty from global models like ECMWF and GFS centering 19-20°C, where sea breeze incursions from Tokyo Bay, variable afternoon cloud cover, and boundary layer mixing could cap peak solar heating by 1-2°C at the resolving Haneda Airport station. Final JMA updates overnight may sharpen consensus before observations finalize.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued at 17:00 JST on March 28 projects a high of 21°C in Tokyo on March 29 under initially clear skies turning cloudy later, with low precipitation risk (under 20%), boosting trader-implied odds for mild outcomes amid weak high-pressure ridging and above-normal spring warmth (daily normal 16.7°C). Yet closely matched probabilities for 19°C (23.5%), 20°C (35.5%), and 21°C (28.0%) reflect ensemble uncertainty from global models like ECMWF and GFS centering 19-20°C, where sea breeze incursions from Tokyo Bay, variable afternoon cloud cover, and boundary layer mixing could cap peak solar heating by 1-2°C at the resolving Haneda Airport station. Final JMA updates overnight may sharpen consensus before observations finalize.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20°C" at 36%, followed by "21°C" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 29?" has generated $65.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 29?" is "20°C" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "21°C" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.