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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

27°C 33%

26°C 25%

28°C 21%

29°C 12%

Polymarket

$32,311 Vol.

27°C 33%

26°C 25%

28°C 21%

29°C 12%

Polymarket

$32,311 Vol.

21°C or below

$4,270 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$5,376 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$7,136 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$2,268 Vol.

2%

25°C

$1,506 Vol.

7%

26°C

$1,370 Vol.

25%

27°C

$1,847 Vol.

33%

28°C

$1,432 Vol.

21%

29°C

$1,599 Vol.

12%

30°C

$2,192 Vol.

3%

31°C or higher

$3,332 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29, with 27°C leading at 32.5% implied probability amid competing 26°C and 28°C outcomes, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 28°C peak under partly cloudy skies and southeast winds. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show minor divergence—typically 1°C spreads—due to variable sea breeze timing from the South China Sea, which could moderate afternoon peaks if onshore flows strengthen early, capping heat at 26°C, versus delayed arrival allowing urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station to push toward 28°C. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor above-average insolation (March norms ~24°C highs), but patchy low clouds add variability; final hourly observations will resolve amid inherent model uncertainty.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29, with 27°C leading at 32.5% implied probability amid competing 26°C and 28°C outcomes, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 28°C peak under partly cloudy skies and southeast winds. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show minor divergence—typically 1°C spreads—due to variable sea breeze timing from the South China Sea, which could moderate afternoon peaks if onshore flows strengthen early, capping heat at 26°C, versus delayed arrival allowing urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station to push toward 28°C. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor above-average insolation (March norms ~24°C highs), but patchy low clouds add variability; final hourly observations will resolve amid inherent model uncertainty.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29, with 27°C leading at 32.5% implied probability amid competing 26°C and 28°C outcomes, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 28°C peak under partly cloudy skies and southeast winds. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show minor divergence—typically 1°C spreads—due to variable sea breeze timing from the South China Sea, which could moderate afternoon peaks if onshore flows strengthen early, capping heat at 26°C, versus delayed arrival allowing urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station to push toward 28°C. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor above-average insolation (March norms ~24°C highs), but patchy low clouds add variability; final hourly observations will resolve amid inherent model uncertainty.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29, with 27°C leading at 32.5% implied probability amid competing 26°C and 28°C outcomes, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest projection of a 28°C peak under partly cloudy skies and southeast winds. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show minor divergence—typically 1°C spreads—due to variable sea breeze timing from the South China Sea, which could moderate afternoon peaks if onshore flows strengthen early, capping heat at 26°C, versus delayed arrival allowing urban heat island effects at Bao'an International Airport station to push toward 28°C. Clear skies under a subtropical high-pressure ridge favor above-average insolation (March norms ~24°C highs), but patchy low clouds add variability; final hourly observations will resolve amid inherent model uncertainty.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C" at 33%, followed by "26°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" has generated $32.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" is "27°C" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.