Official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and China Meteorological Administration stations confirm a midday peak temperature of 28°C today, driving the 99.9% market-implied probability for this outcome amid steady morning warming from 22–24°C under partly cloudy subtropical conditions. High humidity around 80–83% and increasing cloud cover have capped intensification, aligning with AccuWeather's projected high of 81°F (27°C) and historical late-March averages of 24–27°C that rarely exceed 30°C. Forecast model consensus showed minimal upside risk, with traders aggregating real-time METAR data to reflect near-certainty as evening cooling sets in. A realistic challenge would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or station-specific measurement revision, though current trends make this improbable; final CMA daily report pending.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
$311,973 Vol.
$311,973 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
28°C
100%
29°C or higher
<1%
$311,973 Vol.
$311,973 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
28°C
$26,680 Vol.
100%
29°C or higher
$25,569 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and China Meteorological Administration stations confirm a midday peak temperature of 28°C today, driving the 99.9% market-implied probability for this outcome amid steady morning warming from 22–24°C under partly cloudy subtropical conditions. High humidity around 80–83% and increasing cloud cover have capped intensification, aligning with AccuWeather's projected high of 81°F (27°C) and historical late-March averages of 24–27°C that rarely exceed 30°C. Forecast model consensus showed minimal upside risk, with traders aggregating real-time METAR data to reflect near-certainty as evening cooling sets in. A realistic challenge would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or station-specific measurement revision, though current trends make this improbable; final CMA daily report pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ET
Volume
$311,973End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and China Meteorological Administration stations confirm a midday peak temperature of 28°C today, driving the 99.9% market-implied probability for this outcome amid steady morning warming from 22–24°C under partly cloudy subtropical conditions. High humidity around 80–83% and increasing cloud cover have capped intensification, aligning with AccuWeather's projected high of 81°F (27°C) and historical late-March averages of 24–27°C that rarely exceed 30°C. Forecast model consensus showed minimal upside risk, with traders aggregating real-time METAR data to reflect near-certainty as evening cooling sets in. A realistic challenge would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or station-specific measurement revision, though current trends make this improbable; final CMA daily report pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$311,973End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and China Meteorological Administration stations confirm a midday peak temperature of 28°C today, driving the 99.9% market-implied probability for this outcome amid steady morning warming from 22–24°C under partly cloudy subtropical conditions. High humidity around 80–83% and increasing cloud cover have capped intensification, aligning with AccuWeather's projected high of 81°F (27°C) and historical late-March averages of 24–27°C that rarely exceed 30°C. Forecast model consensus showed minimal upside risk, with traders aggregating real-time METAR data to reflect near-certainty as evening cooling sets in. A realistic challenge would require an anomalous late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or station-specific measurement revision, though current trends make this improbable; final CMA daily report pending.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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