Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai today, driven by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording mid-afternoon peaks at that level under persistent overcast skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. This aligns with the latest CMA forecast guidance and international model ensembles projecting daytime maxima clustered around 21-22°C, elevated above the late-March climatological average of 13-15°C due to a high-pressure ridge enabling mild advection. While weather observations carry minor uncertainties from urban heat islands or station microclimates, a realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing for late-afternoon solar heating to push beyond 21°C before sunset, a low-likelihood scenario given current cloud cover and solar geometry. Final CMA daily maximum reports expected this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 28?
21°C 99.8%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
22°C <1%
$335,560 Vol.
$335,560 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
16°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.8%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
22°C <1%
$335,560 Vol.
$335,560 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
16°C
$18,306 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$49,689 Vol.
100%
22°C
$35,181 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$40,127 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$36,222 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai today, driven by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording mid-afternoon peaks at that level under persistent overcast skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. This aligns with the latest CMA forecast guidance and international model ensembles projecting daytime maxima clustered around 21-22°C, elevated above the late-March climatological average of 13-15°C due to a high-pressure ridge enabling mild advection. While weather observations carry minor uncertainties from urban heat islands or station microclimates, a realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing for late-afternoon solar heating to push beyond 21°C before sunset, a low-likelihood scenario given current cloud cover and solar geometry. Final CMA daily maximum reports expected this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$335,560End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai today, driven by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording mid-afternoon peaks at that level under persistent overcast skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. This aligns with the latest CMA forecast guidance and international model ensembles projecting daytime maxima clustered around 21-22°C, elevated above the late-March climatological average of 13-15°C due to a high-pressure ridge enabling mild advection. While weather observations carry minor uncertainties from urban heat islands or station microclimates, a realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing for late-afternoon solar heating to push beyond 21°C before sunset, a low-likelihood scenario given current cloud cover and solar geometry. Final CMA daily maximum reports expected this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$335,560End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.8% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai today, driven by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations recording mid-afternoon peaks at that level under persistent overcast skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. This aligns with the latest CMA forecast guidance and international model ensembles projecting daytime maxima clustered around 21-22°C, elevated above the late-March climatological average of 13-15°C due to a high-pressure ridge enabling mild advection. While weather observations carry minor uncertainties from urban heat islands or station microclimates, a realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing for late-afternoon solar heating to push beyond 21°C before sunset, a low-likelihood scenario given current cloud cover and solar geometry. Final CMA daily maximum reports expected this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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