Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on March 28, mirroring the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) most recent forecast guidance for a daytime peak near 20–21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds that cap convective heating. Mid-afternoon observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the official reporting station—align closely with this range, amid a mild early spring pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 13–15°C highs. Model ensembles from CMA and global systems like ECMWF show tight agreement, with minimal spread above 22°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine boosting insolation beyond expectations or urban heat island amplification, but these face low odds as the day progresses toward evening cooldown and final measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 28?
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$357,159 Vol.
$357,159 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$357,159 Vol.
$357,159 Vol.
Mar 28, 2026
21°C
$55,994 Vol.
100%
22°C
$49,944 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$40,445 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$36,426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on March 28, mirroring the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) most recent forecast guidance for a daytime peak near 20–21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds that cap convective heating. Mid-afternoon observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the official reporting station—align closely with this range, amid a mild early spring pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 13–15°C highs. Model ensembles from CMA and global systems like ECMWF show tight agreement, with minimal spread above 22°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine boosting insolation beyond expectations or urban heat island amplification, but these face low odds as the day progresses toward evening cooldown and final measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$357,159End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on March 28, mirroring the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) most recent forecast guidance for a daytime peak near 20–21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds that cap convective heating. Mid-afternoon observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the official reporting station—align closely with this range, amid a mild early spring pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 13–15°C highs. Model ensembles from CMA and global systems like ECMWF show tight agreement, with minimal spread above 22°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine boosting insolation beyond expectations or urban heat island amplification, but these face low odds as the day progresses toward evening cooldown and final measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$357,159End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on March 28, mirroring the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) most recent forecast guidance for a daytime peak near 20–21°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds that cap convective heating. Mid-afternoon observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the official reporting station—align closely with this range, amid a mild early spring pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 13–15°C highs. Model ensembles from CMA and global systems like ECMWF show tight agreement, with minimal spread above 22°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged sunshine boosting insolation beyond expectations or urban heat island amplification, but these face low odds as the day progresses toward evening cooldown and final measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions