Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 15-17°C with a tight 1-2°C spread, mirroring closely matched market-implied odds favoring 16°C (33%) over 17°C (27%) and 15°C (20%). This trader consensus reflects uncertainty in cloud persistence and boundary layer stability, where prolonged overcast conditions from a weak northerly flow could suppress daytime heating, as seen in recent AccuWeather guidance near 16°C. Over the past 24 hours, updated model runs indicate a cooling shift from earlier warmer outlooks, consistent with early April climatology's variability (historical highs averaging 17-18°C). Watch for 00Z/12Z cycles and China Meteorological Administration updates resolving frontal timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
16°C 33%
17°C 27%
15°C 21%
18°C 11%
$15,282 Vol.
$15,282 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
21%
16°C
33%
17°C
27%
18°C
11%
19°C
6%
20°C or higher
3%
16°C 33%
17°C 27%
15°C 21%
18°C 11%
$15,282 Vol.
$15,282 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
$1,294 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$885 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,390 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,598 Vol.
1%
14°C
$1,193 Vol.
5%
15°C
$2,027 Vol.
21%
16°C
$1,210 Vol.
33%
17°C
$990 Vol.
27%
18°C
$1,160 Vol.
11%
19°C
$883 Vol.
6%
20°C or higher
$1,650 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 15-17°C with a tight 1-2°C spread, mirroring closely matched market-implied odds favoring 16°C (33%) over 17°C (27%) and 15°C (20%). This trader consensus reflects uncertainty in cloud persistence and boundary layer stability, where prolonged overcast conditions from a weak northerly flow could suppress daytime heating, as seen in recent AccuWeather guidance near 16°C. Over the past 24 hours, updated model runs indicate a cooling shift from earlier warmer outlooks, consistent with early April climatology's variability (historical highs averaging 17-18°C). Watch for 00Z/12Z cycles and China Meteorological Administration updates resolving frontal timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$15,282End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 15-17°C with a tight 1-2°C spread, mirroring closely matched market-implied odds favoring 16°C (33%) over 17°C (27%) and 15°C (20%). This trader consensus reflects uncertainty in cloud persistence and boundary layer stability, where prolonged overcast conditions from a weak northerly flow could suppress daytime heating, as seen in recent AccuWeather guidance near 16°C. Over the past 24 hours, updated model runs indicate a cooling shift from earlier warmer outlooks, consistent with early April climatology's variability (historical highs averaging 17-18°C). Watch for 00Z/12Z cycles and China Meteorological Administration updates resolving frontal timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,282End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 15-17°C with a tight 1-2°C spread, mirroring closely matched market-implied odds favoring 16°C (33%) over 17°C (27%) and 15°C (20%). This trader consensus reflects uncertainty in cloud persistence and boundary layer stability, where prolonged overcast conditions from a weak northerly flow could suppress daytime heating, as seen in recent AccuWeather guidance near 16°C. Over the past 24 hours, updated model runs indicate a cooling shift from earlier warmer outlooks, consistent with early April climatology's variability (historical highs averaging 17-18°C). Watch for 00Z/12Z cycles and China Meteorological Administration updates resolving frontal timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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