Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts for Seoul's April 2 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 13–15°C amid model ensemble spreads of 2–3°C. The KMA's March 30 mid-term update projected 16°C under mostly cloudy skies and 30% precipitation chance, but recent observations of persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds on April 1—holding daytime feels near 17°C—have tempered optimism, favoring cooler outcomes due to reduced solar insolation. Historical early-April baselines average 14–16°C highs, yet radiative cooling risks and steering patterns introduce variability; watch KMA's afternoon short-term refresh for resolution-defining guidance from Seoul's official station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
13°C 28%
14°C 24%
15°C 23%
12°C 14%
$97,419 Vol.
$97,419 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
14%
13°C
28%
14°C
24%
15°C
23%
16°C or higher
12%
13°C 28%
14°C 24%
15°C 23%
12°C 14%
$97,419 Vol.
$97,419 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
14%
13°C
28%
14°C
24%
15°C
23%
16°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts for Seoul's April 2 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustered around 13–15°C amid model ensemble spreads of 2–3°C. The KMA's March 30 mid-term update projected 16°C under mostly cloudy skies and 30% precipitation chance, but recent observations of persistent cloud cover and light southerly winds on April 1—holding daytime feels near 17°C—have tempered optimism, favoring cooler outcomes due to reduced solar insolation. Historical early-April baselines average 14–16°C highs, yet radiative cooling risks and steering patterns introduce variability; watch KMA's afternoon short-term refresh for resolution-defining guidance from Seoul's official station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions