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Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

13°C 24%

16°C 18%

10°C 17%

17°C or higher 16%

Polymarket
NEW

13°C 24%

16°C 18%

10°C 17%

17°C or higher 16%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$1,100 Vol.

3%

8°C

$32 Vol.

9%

9°C

$12 Vol.

9%

10°C

$14 Vol.

17%

11°C

$12 Vol.

19%

12°C

$12 Vol.

19%

13°C

$17 Vol.

24%

14°C

$17 Vol.

17%

15°C

$12 Vol.

16%

16°C

$12 Vol.

18%

17°C or higher

$22 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Seoul's highest temperature on April 4 clustered tightly around 11–13°C with spreads of ±2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially 40% precipitation chance limiting solar insolation and capping highs at 11°C versus clearer skies pushing toward 13°C—alongside lingering northerly winds from recent cool spring patterns and urban heat island effects adding 1–2°C. Historical early-April averages hover near 13°C during cherry blossom onset under ENSO-neutral conditions, but model disagreements on frontal timing keep outcomes like 12°C (22.5% implied probability) narrowly ahead. Watch KMA daily updates and fresh ensembles for shifts ahead of resolution using official station data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Seoul's highest temperature on April 4 clustered tightly around 11–13°C with spreads of ±2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially 40% precipitation chance limiting solar insolation and capping highs at 11°C versus clearer skies pushing toward 13°C—alongside lingering northerly winds from recent cool spring patterns and urban heat island effects adding 1–2°C. Historical early-April averages hover near 13°C during cherry blossom onset under ENSO-neutral conditions, but model disagreements on frontal timing keep outcomes like 12°C (22.5% implied probability) narrowly ahead. Watch KMA daily updates and fresh ensembles for shifts ahead of resolution using official station data.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Seoul's highest temperature on April 4 clustered tightly around 11–13°C with spreads of ±2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially 40% precipitation chance limiting solar insolation and capping highs at 11°C versus clearer skies pushing toward 13°C—alongside lingering northerly winds from recent cool spring patterns and urban heat island effects adding 1–2°C. Historical early-April averages hover near 13°C during cherry blossom onset under ENSO-neutral conditions, but model disagreements on frontal timing keep outcomes like 12°C (22.5% implied probability) narrowly ahead. Watch KMA daily updates and fresh ensembles for shifts ahead of resolution using official station data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Seoul's highest temperature on April 4 clustered tightly around 11–13°C with spreads of ±2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover—potentially 40% precipitation chance limiting solar insolation and capping highs at 11°C versus clearer skies pushing toward 13°C—alongside lingering northerly winds from recent cool spring patterns and urban heat island effects adding 1–2°C. Historical early-April averages hover near 13°C during cherry blossom onset under ENSO-neutral conditions, but model disagreements on frontal timing keep outcomes like 12°C (22.5% implied probability) narrowly ahead. Watch KMA daily updates and fresh ensembles for shifts ahead of resolution using official station data.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13°C" at 24%, followed by "11°C" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?" is "13°C" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11°C" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.