Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a maximum temperature near 13°C at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport on April 3, anchoring trader consensus at 34% implied probability for that outcome amid close competition from 14°C (28%) and 12°C (21%). A cool, unsettled weather pattern gripping Île-de-France since March 30—marked by showers, breezy northerlies, and fluctuating temperatures from 2°C to 19°C—has suppressed highs, with overcast skies capping solar insolation while preventing deeper cooling. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud cover persistence and boundary layer mixing, introducing uncertainty typical of spring frontal systems. Daily forecast updates from these agencies will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on April 3?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 3?
13°C 34%
14°C 28%
12°C 21%
15°C 12%
$16,248 Vol.
$16,248 Vol.
8°C or below
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
8%
12°C
21%
13°C
34%
14°C
28%
15°C
12%
16°C
4%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 34%
14°C 28%
12°C 21%
15°C 12%
$16,248 Vol.
$16,248 Vol.
8°C or below
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
8%
12°C
21%
13°C
34%
14°C
28%
15°C
12%
16°C
4%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a maximum temperature near 13°C at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport on April 3, anchoring trader consensus at 34% implied probability for that outcome amid close competition from 14°C (28%) and 12°C (21%). A cool, unsettled weather pattern gripping Île-de-France since March 30—marked by showers, breezy northerlies, and fluctuating temperatures from 2°C to 19°C—has suppressed highs, with overcast skies capping solar insolation while preventing deeper cooling. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud cover persistence and boundary layer mixing, introducing uncertainty typical of spring frontal systems. Daily forecast updates from these agencies will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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