Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 58°F or higher in New York City on April 4 (98.2% implied probability), driven by strong alignment across National Weather Service short-range forecasts and major models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the low to mid-60s°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and abundant sunshine. Recent 24-hour updates confirm above-normal temperatures, consistent with early April climatology where averages hover near 56–58°F but current upper-air patterns minimize cooling risks. Realistic challenges include a surprise cold frontal passage or persistent low clouds suppressing insolation, though ensemble guidance assigns these low odds; watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 98.4%
56-57°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$41,100 Vol.
$41,100 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58°F or higher
98%
58°F or higher 98.4%
56-57°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$41,100 Vol.
$41,100 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
39°F or below
$3,949 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$5,096 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$3,467 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$3,513 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$3,331 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$3,335 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$2,242 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$4,219 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$2,959 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$3,272 Vol.
1%
58°F or higher
$5,717 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 58°F or higher in New York City on April 4 (98.2% implied probability), driven by strong alignment across National Weather Service short-range forecasts and major models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the low to mid-60s°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and abundant sunshine. Recent 24-hour updates confirm above-normal temperatures, consistent with early April climatology where averages hover near 56–58°F but current upper-air patterns minimize cooling risks. Realistic challenges include a surprise cold frontal passage or persistent low clouds suppressing insolation, though ensemble guidance assigns these low odds; watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$41,100End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 58°F or higher in New York City on April 4 (98.2% implied probability), driven by strong alignment across National Weather Service short-range forecasts and major models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the low to mid-60s°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and abundant sunshine. Recent 24-hour updates confirm above-normal temperatures, consistent with early April climatology where averages hover near 56–58°F but current upper-air patterns minimize cooling risks. Realistic challenges include a surprise cold frontal passage or persistent low clouds suppressing insolation, though ensemble guidance assigns these low odds; watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,100End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 58°F or higher in New York City on April 4 (98.2% implied probability), driven by strong alignment across National Weather Service short-range forecasts and major models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs in the low to mid-60s°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow and abundant sunshine. Recent 24-hour updates confirm above-normal temperatures, consistent with early April climatology where averages hover near 56–58°F but current upper-air patterns minimize cooling risks. Realistic challenges include a surprise cold frontal passage or persistent low clouds suppressing insolation, though ensemble guidance assigns these low odds; watch tomorrow's 12Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions