Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 around 12-14°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly advection amid above-normal spring anomalies—well above the early April climatological average of 8-10°C at Vnukovo station. The tight clustering of probabilities (14°C+ at 32.5%, 12°C at 26.5%, 13°C at 22.5%) stems from model spread on cloud cover and timing of possible light showers, which could cap peaks at 12°C or allow sunnier breaks to push toward 14°C. Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and new ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will sharpen this outlook, with resolution per official daily maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
14°C or higher 52%
13°C 29%
12°C 21%
10°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
4°C or below
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
5%
8°C
6%
9°C
4%
10°C
19%
11°C
19%
12°C
21%
13°C
23%
14°C or higher
43%
14°C or higher 52%
13°C 29%
12°C 21%
10°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
4°C or below
$369 Vol.
1%
5°C
$494 Vol.
1%
6°C
$272 Vol.
1%
7°C
$0 Vol.
5%
8°C
$0 Vol.
6%
9°C
$67 Vol.
4%
10°C
$2 Vol.
19%
11°C
$2 Vol.
19%
12°C
$31 Vol.
21%
13°C
$50 Vol.
23%
14°C or higher
$179 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 around 12-14°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly advection amid above-normal spring anomalies—well above the early April climatological average of 8-10°C at Vnukovo station. The tight clustering of probabilities (14°C+ at 32.5%, 12°C at 26.5%, 13°C at 22.5%) stems from model spread on cloud cover and timing of possible light showers, which could cap peaks at 12°C or allow sunnier breaks to push toward 14°C. Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and new ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will sharpen this outlook, with resolution per official daily maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,466End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 around 12-14°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly advection amid above-normal spring anomalies—well above the early April climatological average of 8-10°C at Vnukovo station. The tight clustering of probabilities (14°C+ at 32.5%, 12°C at 26.5%, 13°C at 22.5%) stems from model spread on cloud cover and timing of possible light showers, which could cap peaks at 12°C or allow sunnier breaks to push toward 14°C. Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and new ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will sharpen this outlook, with resolution per official daily maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,466End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects ensemble forecast models like ECMWF and GFS projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 around 12-14°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly advection amid above-normal spring anomalies—well above the early April climatological average of 8-10°C at Vnukovo station. The tight clustering of probabilities (14°C+ at 32.5%, 12°C at 26.5%, 13°C at 22.5%) stems from model spread on cloud cover and timing of possible light showers, which could cap peaks at 12°C or allow sunnier breaks to push toward 14°C. Russian Hydrometeorological Centre updates and new ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will sharpen this outlook, with resolution per official daily maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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