Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for an 18°C high in Madrid on April 2, edging out 17°C at 34.5%, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering around 17.5°C at the Retiro station amid a mild continental air mass and weak Azores High influence. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and partial cloud cover from a lingering Atlantic shortwave, which could cap heating at 17°C or allow southerly flow to push 18°C; GFS runs slightly warmer than GEM. Historical early-April highs average 17–18°C, underscoring typical spring variability. Watch AEMET's evening update and tomorrow's 00Z model refreshes for shifts before resolution based on official max temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 2?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 2?
18°C 43%
17°C 35%
19°C 11%
16°C 8%
$17,403 Vol.
$17,403 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
35%
18°C
43%
19°C
11%
20°C
4%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
18°C 43%
17°C 35%
19°C 11%
16°C 8%
$17,403 Vol.
$17,403 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
$3,714 Vol.
2%
16°C
$2,316 Vol.
8%
17°C
$1,673 Vol.
35%
18°C
$1,711 Vol.
43%
19°C
$1,634 Vol.
11%
20°C
$1,375 Vol.
4%
21°C
$1,362 Vol.
1%
22°C
$866 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$824 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$848 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$1,079 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for an 18°C high in Madrid on April 2, edging out 17°C at 34.5%, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering around 17.5°C at the Retiro station amid a mild continental air mass and weak Azores High influence. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and partial cloud cover from a lingering Atlantic shortwave, which could cap heating at 17°C or allow southerly flow to push 18°C; GFS runs slightly warmer than GEM. Historical early-April highs average 17–18°C, underscoring typical spring variability. Watch AEMET's evening update and tomorrow's 00Z model refreshes for shifts before resolution based on official max temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$17,403End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for an 18°C high in Madrid on April 2, edging out 17°C at 34.5%, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering around 17.5°C at the Retiro station amid a mild continental air mass and weak Azores High influence. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and partial cloud cover from a lingering Atlantic shortwave, which could cap heating at 17°C or allow southerly flow to push 18°C; GFS runs slightly warmer than GEM. Historical early-April highs average 17–18°C, underscoring typical spring variability. Watch AEMET's evening update and tomorrow's 00Z model refreshes for shifts before resolution based on official max temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,403End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for an 18°C high in Madrid on April 2, edging out 17°C at 34.5%, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering around 17.5°C at the Retiro station amid a mild continental air mass and weak Azores High influence. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and partial cloud cover from a lingering Atlantic shortwave, which could cap heating at 17°C or allow southerly flow to push 18°C; GFS runs slightly warmer than GEM. Historical early-April highs average 17–18°C, underscoring typical spring variability. Watch AEMET's evening update and tomorrow's 00Z model refreshes for shifts before resolution based on official max temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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