Trader consensus on Polymarket's highest temperature market for Madrid on April 1 heavily favors 19°C at 57.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 20°C at 40%, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures around 19-20°C amid persistent sunny skies and light northerly winds moderating warmth. Current observations show morning temperatures near 13°C rising under clear conditions and minimal cloud cover, aligning with seasonal early April averages of 18°C while exceeding recent cooler nights around 4-9°C. Ensemble model means cluster tightly in this range due to stable high-pressure influence over Iberia, though minor uncertainties from potential afternoon wind shifts or isolated clouds could nudge outcomes; real-time hourly updates from Madrid-Barajas station will refine trader positioning as the day progresses toward evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
19°C 56%
20°C 44%
21°C 2.6%
22°C <1%
$59,535 Vol.
$59,535 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
56%
20°C
44%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 56%
20°C 44%
21°C 2.6%
22°C <1%
$59,535 Vol.
$59,535 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
16°C
$4,150 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$8,343 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$12,208 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$6,900 Vol.
56%
20°C
$6,140 Vol.
44%
21°C
$6,175 Vol.
3%
22°C
$4,070 Vol.
1%
23°C
$2,054 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$2,693 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's highest temperature market for Madrid on April 1 heavily favors 19°C at 57.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 20°C at 40%, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures around 19-20°C amid persistent sunny skies and light northerly winds moderating warmth. Current observations show morning temperatures near 13°C rising under clear conditions and minimal cloud cover, aligning with seasonal early April averages of 18°C while exceeding recent cooler nights around 4-9°C. Ensemble model means cluster tightly in this range due to stable high-pressure influence over Iberia, though minor uncertainties from potential afternoon wind shifts or isolated clouds could nudge outcomes; real-time hourly updates from Madrid-Barajas station will refine trader positioning as the day progresses toward evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Volume
$59,535End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket's highest temperature market for Madrid on April 1 heavily favors 19°C at 57.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 20°C at 40%, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures around 19-20°C amid persistent sunny skies and light northerly winds moderating warmth. Current observations show morning temperatures near 13°C rising under clear conditions and minimal cloud cover, aligning with seasonal early April averages of 18°C while exceeding recent cooler nights around 4-9°C. Ensemble model means cluster tightly in this range due to stable high-pressure influence over Iberia, though minor uncertainties from potential afternoon wind shifts or isolated clouds could nudge outcomes; real-time hourly updates from Madrid-Barajas station will refine trader positioning as the day progresses toward evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$59,535End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's highest temperature market for Madrid on April 1 heavily favors 19°C at 57.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 20°C at 40%, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models converging on peak afternoon temperatures around 19-20°C amid persistent sunny skies and light northerly winds moderating warmth. Current observations show morning temperatures near 13°C rising under clear conditions and minimal cloud cover, aligning with seasonal early April averages of 18°C while exceeding recent cooler nights around 4-9°C. Ensemble model means cluster tightly in this range due to stable high-pressure influence over Iberia, though minor uncertainties from potential afternoon wind shifts or isolated clouds could nudge outcomes; real-time hourly updates from Madrid-Barajas station will refine trader positioning as the day progresses toward evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions