Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 84°F or higher in Dallas on April 1 at 84.5% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport projecting a high near 86°F under partly sunny, breezy conditions with southwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 mph. This aligns with NOAA's Spring 2026 Outlook signaling above-normal temperatures across Texas due to a persistent upper-level ridge promoting adiabatic warming and dry air subsidence. Recent severe storms cleared out by March 31, allowing diurnal heating to rebound from cooler anomalies earlier in the week, though isolated overnight showers could slightly cap peaks—new model runs expected later today may refine this outlook ahead of resolution using official observations from DFW or Love Field stations. Historical April 1 highs average around 76°F, underscoring the anomalous warmth reflected in current trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on April 1?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?
84°F or higher 85%
82-83°F 8%
80-81°F 3.6%
78-79°F 1.4%
$95,307 Vol.
$95,307 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
8%
84°F or higher
85%
84°F or higher 85%
82-83°F 8%
80-81°F 3.6%
78-79°F 1.4%
$95,307 Vol.
$95,307 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
8%
84°F or higher
85%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 28, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 84°F or higher in Dallas on April 1 at 84.5% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport projecting a high near 86°F under partly sunny, breezy conditions with southwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 mph. This aligns with NOAA's Spring 2026 Outlook signaling above-normal temperatures across Texas due to a persistent upper-level ridge promoting adiabatic warming and dry air subsidence. Recent severe storms cleared out by March 31, allowing diurnal heating to rebound from cooler anomalies earlier in the week, though isolated overnight showers could slightly cap peaks—new model runs expected later today may refine this outlook ahead of resolution using official observations from DFW or Love Field stations. Historical April 1 highs average around 76°F, underscoring the anomalous warmth reflected in current trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions