Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to a Beijing high of 18°C on April 1, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest short-range numerical weather prediction models forecasting exactly that under cloudy skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. Supporting global models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 17-19°C, reflecting mild spring conditions with receding cold fronts and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses northward. Late March observed highs near 18°C on March 30-31 reinforce this positioning against early April climatology, where historical averages hover at 17°C with urban heat island effects adding 1-2°C. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty remains low (±2°C), though evolving cloud cover or boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes; monitor CMA updates through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
18°C 45%
17°C 25%
19°C 19%
16°C 7%
NEW
$35,399 Vol.
NEW
$35,399 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
7%
17°C
25%
18°C
45%
19°C
19%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 45%
17°C 25%
19°C 19%
16°C 7%
NEW
$35,399 Vol.
NEW
$35,399 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
12°C or below
$2,959 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$5,625 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$4,113 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$3,915 Vol.
1%
16°C
$3,369 Vol.
7%
17°C
$1,894 Vol.
25%
18°C
$1,600 Vol.
45%
19°C
$2,984 Vol.
19%
20°C
$2,117 Vol.
3%
21°C
$2,518 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$4,305 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to a Beijing high of 18°C on April 1, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest short-range numerical weather prediction models forecasting exactly that under cloudy skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. Supporting global models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 17-19°C, reflecting mild spring conditions with receding cold fronts and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses northward. Late March observed highs near 18°C on March 30-31 reinforce this positioning against early April climatology, where historical averages hover at 17°C with urban heat island effects adding 1-2°C. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty remains low (±2°C), though evolving cloud cover or boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes; monitor CMA updates through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$35,399End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to a Beijing high of 18°C on April 1, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest short-range numerical weather prediction models forecasting exactly that under cloudy skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. Supporting global models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 17-19°C, reflecting mild spring conditions with receding cold fronts and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses northward. Late March observed highs near 18°C on March 30-31 reinforce this positioning against early April climatology, where historical averages hover at 17°C with urban heat island effects adding 1-2°C. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty remains low (±2°C), though evolving cloud cover or boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes; monitor CMA updates through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$35,399End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 44.5% implied probability to a Beijing high of 18°C on April 1, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest short-range numerical weather prediction models forecasting exactly that under cloudy skies and light southerly winds below 12 km/h. Supporting global models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 17-19°C, reflecting mild spring conditions with receding cold fronts and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses northward. Late March observed highs near 18°C on March 30-31 reinforce this positioning against early April climatology, where historical averages hover at 17°C with urban heat island effects adding 1-2°C. Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty remains low (±2°C), though evolving cloud cover or boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes; monitor CMA updates through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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