Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Ankara on April 1, driven by the latest forecast from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which projects a daytime maximum of 16°C at Esenboğa International Airport—the market's official resolution station—amid very cloudy skies limiting solar heating. Ensemble guidance from global models like ECMWF and GFS aligns closely, reflecting typical early-April climatology with average highs around 15–17°C under similar overcast conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting insolation to reach 17°C or higher (11.5% odds), or denser cloud cover and possible showers capping it at 15°C; real-time observations from the station will firm up as the day progresses toward evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 1?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 1?
16°C 93%
17°C or higher 6%
12°C <1%
15°C <1%
$202,610 Vol.
$202,610 Vol.
12°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
93%
17°C or higher
6%
16°C 93%
17°C or higher 6%
12°C <1%
15°C <1%
$202,610 Vol.
$202,610 Vol.
12°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
93%
17°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 28, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C in Ankara on April 1, driven by the latest forecast from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), which projects a daytime maximum of 16°C at Esenboğa International Airport—the market's official resolution station—amid very cloudy skies limiting solar heating. Ensemble guidance from global models like ECMWF and GFS aligns closely, reflecting typical early-April climatology with average highs around 15–17°C under similar overcast conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting insolation to reach 17°C or higher (11.5% odds), or denser cloud cover and possible showers capping it at 15°C; real-time observations from the station will firm up as the day progresses toward evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions