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Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

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Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$33,362 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$33,362 Vol.

Federal Judge Kate Menendez is hearing arguments on January 26 in a case over the legality of the Trump Administration’s Operation Metro Surge, which sent around 3,000 additional immigration agents to the state of Minnesota (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-send-border-czar-homan-minnesota-2026-01-26/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a federal judge issues an order to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Order refers to a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or any other written order carrying legal force issued by a federal judge and entered on the court docket.

An order will be considered to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge if it broadly commands the operation to cease its implementation for any period of time, or if it otherwise commands a reduction in the number of federal immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota.

Federal immigration enforcement agents refers to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol personnel, and any other federal personnel operating in Minnesota for immigration enforcement under Operation Metro Surge.

Orders which command a reduction in the number of immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota will count. Any order commanding a cap on the number of federal immigration agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota below the operational level in effect at the time the order is issued will count, including a return to baseline levels before Operation Metro Surge. An order which does not explicitly mention Operation Metro Surge may count, so long as it applies to agents engaged in that operation.

Orders to limit the use of specific actions or tactics (e.g. tear-gas use, search of property without a warrant, etc.), without ordering a reduction/withdrawal/return-to-baseline/cap for federal immigration enforcement agents under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota, will not count.

Any qualifying order issued within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of if it is stayed pending appeal, or if it is otherwise not enforced.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,362
End Date
Jan 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Federal Judge Kate Menendez is hearing arguments on January 26 in a case over the legality of the Trump Administration’s Operation Metro Surge, which sent around 3,000 additional immigration agents to the state of Minnesota (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-send-border-czar-homan-minnesota-2026-01-26/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a federal judge issues an order to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Order refers to a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or any other written order carrying legal force issued by a federal judge and entered on the court docket. An order will be considered to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge if it broadly commands the operation to cease its implementation for any period of time, or if it otherwise commands a reduction in the number of federal immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota. Federal immigration enforcement agents refers to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol personnel, and any other federal personnel operating in Minnesota for immigration enforcement under Operation Metro Surge. Orders which command a reduction in the number of immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota will count. Any order commanding a cap on the number of federal immigration agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota below the operational level in effect at the time the order is issued will count, including a return to baseline levels before Operation Metro Surge. An order which does not explicitly mention Operation Metro Surge may count, so long as it applies to agents engaged in that operation. Orders to limit the use of specific actions or tactics (e.g. tear-gas use, search of property without a warrant, etc.), without ordering a reduction/withdrawal/return-to-baseline/cap for federal immigration enforcement agents under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota, will not count. Any qualifying order issued within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of if it is stayed pending appeal, or if it is otherwise not enforced. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Federal Judge Kate Menendez is hearing arguments on January 26 in a case over the legality of the Trump Administration’s Operation Metro Surge, which sent around 3,000 additional immigration agents to the state of Minnesota (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-send-border-czar-homan-minnesota-2026-01-26/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a federal judge issues an order to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Order refers to a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or any other written order carrying legal force issued by a federal judge and entered on the court docket.

An order will be considered to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge if it broadly commands the operation to cease its implementation for any period of time, or if it otherwise commands a reduction in the number of federal immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota.

Federal immigration enforcement agents refers to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol personnel, and any other federal personnel operating in Minnesota for immigration enforcement under Operation Metro Surge.

Orders which command a reduction in the number of immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota will count. Any order commanding a cap on the number of federal immigration agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota below the operational level in effect at the time the order is issued will count, including a return to baseline levels before Operation Metro Surge. An order which does not explicitly mention Operation Metro Surge may count, so long as it applies to agents engaged in that operation.

Orders to limit the use of specific actions or tactics (e.g. tear-gas use, search of property without a warrant, etc.), without ordering a reduction/withdrawal/return-to-baseline/cap for federal immigration enforcement agents under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota, will not count.

Any qualifying order issued within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of if it is stayed pending appeal, or if it is otherwise not enforced.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,362
End Date
Jan 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Federal Judge Kate Menendez is hearing arguments on January 26 in a case over the legality of the Trump Administration’s Operation Metro Surge, which sent around 3,000 additional immigration agents to the state of Minnesota (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-send-border-czar-homan-minnesota-2026-01-26/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a federal judge issues an order to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Order refers to a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or any other written order carrying legal force issued by a federal judge and entered on the court docket. An order will be considered to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge if it broadly commands the operation to cease its implementation for any period of time, or if it otherwise commands a reduction in the number of federal immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota. Federal immigration enforcement agents refers to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol personnel, and any other federal personnel operating in Minnesota for immigration enforcement under Operation Metro Surge. Orders which command a reduction in the number of immigration enforcement agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota will count. Any order commanding a cap on the number of federal immigration agents operating under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota below the operational level in effect at the time the order is issued will count, including a return to baseline levels before Operation Metro Surge. An order which does not explicitly mention Operation Metro Surge may count, so long as it applies to agents engaged in that operation. Orders to limit the use of specific actions or tactics (e.g. tear-gas use, search of property without a warrant, etc.), without ordering a reduction/withdrawal/return-to-baseline/cap for federal immigration enforcement agents under Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota, will not count. Any qualifying order issued within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of if it is stayed pending appeal, or if it is otherwise not enforced. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

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