$371,747 Vol.
$371,747 Vol.
Jul 31, 2025
$371,747 Vol.
$371,747 Vol.
Jul 31, 2025
On June 30, Elon Musk tweeted "If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day" (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1939806847504105683).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly announces the formation of a new political party within 24 hours of the next reconciliation bill being passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announcement must be explicit and clearly state that the new political party is being launched or formed. Statements merely expressing support for the idea of a new party, or alignment with specific political ideologies or other statements which do not constitute the official launch of a new political party will not qualify.
The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.
The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President.
In order to qualify, the same reconciliation bill must be passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Passage of different reconciliation bills by each chamber will not suffice.
The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.On June 30, Elon Musk tweeted "If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day" (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1939806847504105683).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly announces the formation of a new political party within 24 hours of the next reconciliation bill being passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announcement must be explicit and clearly state that the new political party is being launched or formed. Statements merely expressing support for the idea of a new party, or alignment with specific political ideologies or other statements which do not constitute the official launch of a new political party will not qualify.
The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.
The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President.
In order to qualify, the same reconciliation bill must be passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Passage of different reconciliation bills by each chamber will not suffice.
The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly announces the formation of a new political party within 24 hours of the next reconciliation bill being passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announcement must be explicit and clearly state that the new political party is being launched or formed. Statements merely expressing support for the idea of a new party, or alignment with specific political ideologies or other statements which do not constitute the official launch of a new political party will not qualify.
The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.
The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President.
In order to qualify, the same reconciliation bill must be passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Passage of different reconciliation bills by each chamber will not suffice.
The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2025, 10:59 PM ET
Volume
$371,747End Date
Jul 31, 2025Market Opened
Jun 30, 2025, 10:59 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
On June 30, Elon Musk tweeted "If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day" (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1939806847504105683).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly announces the formation of a new political party within 24 hours of the next reconciliation bill being passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announcement must be explicit and clearly state that the new political party is being launched or formed. Statements merely expressing support for the idea of a new party, or alignment with specific political ideologies or other statements which do not constitute the official launch of a new political party will not qualify.
The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.
The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President.
In order to qualify, the same reconciliation bill must be passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Passage of different reconciliation bills by each chamber will not suffice.
The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.On June 30, Elon Musk tweeted "If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day" (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1939806847504105683).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly announces the formation of a new political party within 24 hours of the next reconciliation bill being passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announcement must be explicit and clearly state that the new political party is being launched or formed. Statements merely expressing support for the idea of a new party, or alignment with specific political ideologies or other statements which do not constitute the official launch of a new political party will not qualify.
The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.
The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President.
In order to qualify, the same reconciliation bill must be passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Passage of different reconciliation bills by each chamber will not suffice.
The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly announces the formation of a new political party within 24 hours of the next reconciliation bill being passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announcement must be explicit and clearly state that the new political party is being launched or formed. Statements merely expressing support for the idea of a new party, or alignment with specific political ideologies or other statements which do not constitute the official launch of a new political party will not qualify.
The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.
The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President.
In order to qualify, the same reconciliation bill must be passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Passage of different reconciliation bills by each chamber will not suffice.
The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$371,747End Date
Jul 31, 2025Market Opened
Jun 30, 2025, 10:59 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
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