Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 91.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite preparatory steps like audited GAAP financials disclosed in early March and a massive $5 billion funding round in February valuing the data analytics and AI platform at $134 billion. With $5.4 billion in annual recurring revenue, 65% year-over-year growth, and free cash flow positivity, Databricks faces little pressure to go public amid volatile software markets, enabling it to leverage private capital for AI lakehouse expansions and acquisitions like Antimatter and SiftD.ai. An Analyst Day on April 21 could signal timelines, but a surprise confidential filing and favorable roadshow conditions remain the key scenarios to shift odds toward a high-valuation debut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 91.3%
250B+ 3.5%
125–150B 1.9%
175–200B 1.8%
$365,542 Vol.
$365,542 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
1%
100–125B
1%
125–150B
2%
150–175B
2%
175–200B
2%
200–250B
1%
250B+
4%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
91%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 91.3%
250B+ 3.5%
125–150B 1.9%
175–200B 1.8%
$365,542 Vol.
$365,542 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$32,044 Vol.
1%
100–125B
$37,904 Vol.
1%
125–150B
$24,250 Vol.
2%
150–175B
$58,611 Vol.
2%
175–200B
$56,728 Vol.
2%
200–250B
$19,022 Vol.
1%
250B+
$124,207 Vol.
4%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$12,776 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 91.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite preparatory steps like audited GAAP financials disclosed in early March and a massive $5 billion funding round in February valuing the data analytics and AI platform at $134 billion. With $5.4 billion in annual recurring revenue, 65% year-over-year growth, and free cash flow positivity, Databricks faces little pressure to go public amid volatile software markets, enabling it to leverage private capital for AI lakehouse expansions and acquisitions like Antimatter and SiftD.ai. An Analyst Day on April 21 could signal timelines, but a surprise confidential filing and favorable roadshow conditions remain the key scenarios to shift odds toward a high-valuation debut.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$365,542End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 91.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite preparatory steps like audited GAAP financials disclosed in early March and a massive $5 billion funding round in February valuing the data analytics and AI platform at $134 billion. With $5.4 billion in annual recurring revenue, 65% year-over-year growth, and free cash flow positivity, Databricks faces little pressure to go public amid volatile software markets, enabling it to leverage private capital for AI lakehouse expansions and acquisitions like Antimatter and SiftD.ai. An Analyst Day on April 21 could signal timelines, but a surprise confidential filing and favorable roadshow conditions remain the key scenarios to shift odds toward a high-valuation debut.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$365,542End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 91.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of an S-1 filing despite preparatory steps like audited GAAP financials disclosed in early March and a massive $5 billion funding round in February valuing the data analytics and AI platform at $134 billion. With $5.4 billion in annual recurring revenue, 65% year-over-year growth, and free cash flow positivity, Databricks faces little pressure to go public amid volatile software markets, enabling it to leverage private capital for AI lakehouse expansions and acquisitions like Antimatter and SiftD.ai. An Analyst Day on April 21 could signal timelines, but a surprise confidential filing and favorable roadshow conditions remain the key scenarios to shift odds toward a high-valuation debut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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