Traders on Polymarket price a 59.5% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, reflecting a risk premium from escalating Middle East tensions—particularly Israel-Iran exchanges and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea—offsetting softer U.S. demand signals. The June CL contract trades near $81.50 amid backwardation in the futures curve, signaling tight near-term supply expectations despite EIA's latest report showing a 1.9 million barrel inventory build last week, smaller than feared. Bullish catalysts include anticipated U.S. summer driving season demand and OPEC+'s June 2 meeting to extend voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, while bearish pressures from China's sluggish recovery and high U.S. production near 13.2 million bpd cap upside. Key watch: Friday's EIA data and non-OPEC supply trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 60%
$77-$84 13%
$70-$77 11.6%
$63-$70 9%
$83,267 Vol.
$83,267 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
7%
$63-$70
9%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
13%
>$84
60%
>$84 60%
$77-$84 13%
$70-$77 11.6%
$63-$70 9%
$83,267 Vol.
$83,267 Vol.
<$42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
7%
$63-$70
9%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
13%
>$84
60%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders on Polymarket price a 59.5% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, reflecting a risk premium from escalating Middle East tensions—particularly Israel-Iran exchanges and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea—offsetting softer U.S. demand signals. The June CL contract trades near $81.50 amid backwardation in the futures curve, signaling tight near-term supply expectations despite EIA's latest report showing a 1.9 million barrel inventory build last week, smaller than feared. Bullish catalysts include anticipated U.S. summer driving season demand and OPEC+'s June 2 meeting to extend voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, while bearish pressures from China's sluggish recovery and high U.S. production near 13.2 million bpd cap upside. Key watch: Friday's EIA data and non-OPEC supply trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions