Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Gold (GC) March futures settling below $4,750, driven by the metal's recent pullback from record highs near $2,685/oz after stronger-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls diminished odds of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainty supports elevated prices around $2,670/oz spot, but rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar index (DXY) exert downward pressure on the futures curve. Upcoming October CPI data and FOMC meeting on October 30-31 could shift rate path expectations, with historical base rates suggesting limited upside to breach $4,750 barring major geopolitical escalation. The 14.5% priced into higher bins reflects tail risks from policy surprises or inflation spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated<$4,750 86%
$4,750-$4,875 7%
$4,875-$5,000 2.5%
$5,000-$5,125 1.6%
$113,426 Vol.
$113,426 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<$4,750
86%
$4,750-$4,875
7%
$4,875-$5,000
3%
$5,000-$5,125
2%
$5,125-$5,250
<1%
$5,250-$5,375
<1%
$5,375-$5,500
<1%
$5,500-$5,625
<1%
$5,625-$5,750
<1%
$5,750+
<1%
<$4,750 86%
$4,750-$4,875 7%
$4,875-$5,000 2.5%
$5,000-$5,125 1.6%
$113,426 Vol.
$113,426 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<$4,750
$7,652 Vol.
86%
$4,750-$4,875
$2,241 Vol.
7%
$4,875-$5,000
$3,642 Vol.
3%
$5,000-$5,125
$3,682 Vol.
2%
$5,125-$5,250
$41,804 Vol.
<1%
$5,250-$5,375
$37,036 Vol.
<1%
$5,375-$5,500
$2,296 Vol.
<1%
$5,500-$5,625
$8,748 Vol.
<1%
$5,625-$5,750
$2,900 Vol.
<1%
$5,750+
$3,427 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Gold (GC) March futures settling below $4,750, driven by the metal's recent pullback from record highs near $2,685/oz after stronger-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls diminished odds of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainty supports elevated prices around $2,670/oz spot, but rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar index (DXY) exert downward pressure on the futures curve. Upcoming October CPI data and FOMC meeting on October 30-31 could shift rate path expectations, with historical base rates suggesting limited upside to breach $4,750 barring major geopolitical escalation. The 14.5% priced into higher bins reflects tail risks from policy surprises or inflation spikes.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$113,426End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Gold (GC) March futures settling below $4,750, driven by the metal's recent pullback from record highs near $2,685/oz after stronger-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls diminished odds of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainty supports elevated prices around $2,670/oz spot, but rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar index (DXY) exert downward pressure on the futures curve. Upcoming October CPI data and FOMC meeting on October 30-31 could shift rate path expectations, with historical base rates suggesting limited upside to breach $4,750 barring major geopolitical escalation. The 14.5% priced into higher bins reflects tail risks from policy surprises or inflation spikes.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Volume
$113,426End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Gold (GC) March futures settling below $4,750, driven by the metal's recent pullback from record highs near $2,685/oz after stronger-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls diminished odds of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainty supports elevated prices around $2,670/oz spot, but rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar index (DXY) exert downward pressure on the futures curve. Upcoming October CPI data and FOMC meeting on October 30-31 could shift rate path expectations, with historical base rates suggesting limited upside to breach $4,750 barring major geopolitical escalation. The 14.5% priced into higher bins reflects tail risks from policy surprises or inflation spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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