Following the U.S. military intervention on January 3, 2026, which featured precision strikes and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, traders price low odds for another strike amid a stabilized transitional administration. U.S. forces secured key oil infrastructure, channeling PDVSA revenues into controlled Treasury accounts while easing select sanctions for Chevron and others to export heavy crude to Gulf Coast refineries optimized for Venezuelan Merey-grade oil. No verifiable military escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or retaliatory actions from Venezuelan proxies have emerged in the past 30 days, reflecting de-escalation signals. Public approval polls from early March hovered around 33%, tempering hawkish momentum. Upcoming factors include potential Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations for a successor government, or international mediation at the UN, any of which could alter trader consensus on further military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$2,523,114 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
March 31
3%
December 31
23%
$2,523,114 Vol.
March 31
$167,724 Vol.
3%
December 31
$481,846 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the U.S. military intervention on January 3, 2026, which featured precision strikes and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, traders price low odds for another strike amid a stabilized transitional administration. U.S. forces secured key oil infrastructure, channeling PDVSA revenues into controlled Treasury accounts while easing select sanctions for Chevron and others to export heavy crude to Gulf Coast refineries optimized for Venezuelan Merey-grade oil. No verifiable military escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or retaliatory actions from Venezuelan proxies have emerged in the past 30 days, reflecting de-escalation signals. Public approval polls from early March hovered around 33%, tempering hawkish momentum. Upcoming factors include potential Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations for a successor government, or international mediation at the UN, any of which could alter trader consensus on further military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,523,114End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following the U.S. military intervention on January 3, 2026, which featured precision strikes and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, traders price low odds for another strike amid a stabilized transitional administration. U.S. forces secured key oil infrastructure, channeling PDVSA revenues into controlled Treasury accounts while easing select sanctions for Chevron and others to export heavy crude to Gulf Coast refineries optimized for Venezuelan Merey-grade oil. No verifiable military escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or retaliatory actions from Venezuelan proxies have emerged in the past 30 days, reflecting de-escalation signals. Public approval polls from early March hovered around 33%, tempering hawkish momentum. Upcoming factors include potential Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations for a successor government, or international mediation at the UN, any of which could alter trader consensus on further military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,523,114End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the U.S. military intervention on January 3, 2026, which featured precision strikes and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, traders price low odds for another strike amid a stabilized transitional administration. U.S. forces secured key oil infrastructure, channeling PDVSA revenues into controlled Treasury accounts while easing select sanctions for Chevron and others to export heavy crude to Gulf Coast refineries optimized for Venezuelan Merey-grade oil. No verifiable military escalations, diplomatic breakdowns, or retaliatory actions from Venezuelan proxies have emerged in the past 30 days, reflecting de-escalation signals. Public approval polls from early March hovered around 33%, tempering hawkish momentum. Upcoming factors include potential Venezuelan elections, coalition negotiations for a successor government, or international mediation at the UN, any of which could alter trader consensus on further military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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