Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0+ earthquake hinges on USGS historical data showing 15-20 such events annually worldwide, equivalent to roughly one every 18-24 days on average, following a Poisson distribution with no reliable short-term predictability due to tectonic unpredictability. The most recent M7.0+ struck off Japan's Hokkaido on August 13 (M7.1), followed by a M7.2 near the Mariana Islands on September 11, heightening perceptions of clustering despite statistical randomness. Current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous global seismic upticks, but traders eye upcoming tectonic strain metrics from plate boundary observatories; odds could shift with any verified swarm activity reported in weekly USGS summaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
$0.00 Vol.
May 31, 2026
March 31
Yes
April 30
Yes
May 31
Yes
$0.00 Vol.
March 31
$0 Vol.
Yes
April 30
$0 Vol.
Yes
May 31
$0 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0+ earthquake hinges on USGS historical data showing 15-20 such events annually worldwide, equivalent to roughly one every 18-24 days on average, following a Poisson distribution with no reliable short-term predictability due to tectonic unpredictability. The most recent M7.0+ struck off Japan's Hokkaido on August 13 (M7.1), followed by a M7.2 near the Mariana Islands on September 11, heightening perceptions of clustering despite statistical randomness. Current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous global seismic upticks, but traders eye upcoming tectonic strain metrics from plate boundary observatories; odds could shift with any verified swarm activity reported in weekly USGS summaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0+ earthquake hinges on USGS historical data showing 15-20 such events annually worldwide, equivalent to roughly one every 18-24 days on average, following a Poisson distribution with no reliable short-term predictability due to tectonic unpredictability. The most recent M7.0+ struck off Japan's Hokkaido on August 13 (M7.1), followed by a M7.2 near the Mariana Islands on September 11, heightening perceptions of clustering despite statistical randomness. Current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous global seismic upticks, but traders eye upcoming tectonic strain metrics from plate boundary observatories; odds could shift with any verified swarm activity reported in weekly USGS summaries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$0End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader sentiment for another magnitude 7.0+ earthquake hinges on USGS historical data showing 15-20 such events annually worldwide, equivalent to roughly one every 18-24 days on average, following a Poisson distribution with no reliable short-term predictability due to tectonic unpredictability. The most recent M7.0+ struck off Japan's Hokkaido on August 13 (M7.1), followed by a M7.2 near the Mariana Islands on September 11, heightening perceptions of clustering despite statistical randomness. Current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous global seismic upticks, but traders eye upcoming tectonic strain metrics from plate boundary observatories; odds could shift with any verified swarm activity reported in weekly USGS summaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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