Persistent La Niña conditions through early 2026 have driven down global surface air temperatures, positioning March 2026 firmly outside the top three hottest on record according to preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus and early indicators from NOAA and Berkeley Earth. February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest February globally across datasets, with anomalies around 0.5–1.2°C above baselines—far below El Niño-fueled peaks like March 2024's record 1.68°C above 1991–2020 average. A late-month heat dome shattered U.S. western records, but cooler Pacific sea surface temperatures and hemispheric contrasts tempered the global mean to roughly 4th–6th place. Final bulletins, due mid-April from Berkeley Earth and early May from Copernicus/NOAA, could incorporate refined ocean measurements, though significant upward revisions would require anomalous unreported warming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
4th or lower 98.9%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$279,340 Vol.
$279,340 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
1st hottest
<1%
2nd hottest
<1%
3rd hottest
<1%
4th or lower
99%
4th or lower 98.9%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$279,340 Vol.
$279,340 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
1st hottest
$98,214 Vol.
<1%
2nd hottest
$54,289 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$96,197 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$30,640 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent La Niña conditions through early 2026 have driven down global surface air temperatures, positioning March 2026 firmly outside the top three hottest on record according to preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus and early indicators from NOAA and Berkeley Earth. February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest February globally across datasets, with anomalies around 0.5–1.2°C above baselines—far below El Niño-fueled peaks like March 2024's record 1.68°C above 1991–2020 average. A late-month heat dome shattered U.S. western records, but cooler Pacific sea surface temperatures and hemispheric contrasts tempered the global mean to roughly 4th–6th place. Final bulletins, due mid-April from Berkeley Earth and early May from Copernicus/NOAA, could incorporate refined ocean measurements, though significant upward revisions would require anomalous unreported warming.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$279,340End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Persistent La Niña conditions through early 2026 have driven down global surface air temperatures, positioning March 2026 firmly outside the top three hottest on record according to preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus and early indicators from NOAA and Berkeley Earth. February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest February globally across datasets, with anomalies around 0.5–1.2°C above baselines—far below El Niño-fueled peaks like March 2024's record 1.68°C above 1991–2020 average. A late-month heat dome shattered U.S. western records, but cooler Pacific sea surface temperatures and hemispheric contrasts tempered the global mean to roughly 4th–6th place. Final bulletins, due mid-April from Berkeley Earth and early May from Copernicus/NOAA, could incorporate refined ocean measurements, though significant upward revisions would require anomalous unreported warming.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$279,340End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent La Niña conditions through early 2026 have driven down global surface air temperatures, positioning March 2026 firmly outside the top three hottest on record according to preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus and early indicators from NOAA and Berkeley Earth. February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest February globally across datasets, with anomalies around 0.5–1.2°C above baselines—far below El Niño-fueled peaks like March 2024's record 1.68°C above 1991–2020 average. A late-month heat dome shattered U.S. western records, but cooler Pacific sea surface temperatures and hemispheric contrasts tempered the global mean to roughly 4th–6th place. Final bulletins, due mid-April from Berkeley Earth and early May from Copernicus/NOAA, could incorporate refined ocean measurements, though significant upward revisions would require anomalous unreported warming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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