Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Feb 28

$9,121,450 Vol.

Nov 5, 2025
Polymarket

Normas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$9,121,450
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2025
Creado en
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Feb 28

$9,121,450 Vol.

Polymarket

29 de octubre

$24,426 Vol.

No

30 de octubre

$66,799 Vol.

Sí

31 de octubre

$57,545 Vol.

Sí

1 de noviembre

$228,007 Vol.

Sí

2 de noviembre

$152,234 Vol.

Sí

3 de noviembre

$83,226 Vol.

Sí

4 de noviembre

$728,964 Vol.

No

5 de noviembre

$189,996 Vol.

Sí

6 de noviembre

$163,961 Vol.

Sí

7 de noviembre

$69,807 Vol.

No

8 de noviembre

$133,642 Vol.

Sí

9 de noviembre

$254,973 Vol.

Sí

10 de noviembre

$168,198 Vol.

Sí

11 de noviembre

$105,391 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 12 de noviembre

$41,620 Vol.

No

13 de noviembre

$128,822 Vol.

Sí

14 de noviembre

$40,611 Vol.

No

15 de noviembre

$25,567 Vol.

No

16 de noviembre

$98,133 Vol.

Sí

17 de noviembre

$80,522 Vol.

No

18 de noviembre

$85,260 Vol.

Sí

19 de noviembre

$96,908 Vol.

Sí

20 de noviembre

$49,142 Vol.

No

21 de noviembre

$72,916 Vol.

Sí

22 de noviembre

$88,793 Vol.

Sí

23 de noviembre

$53,984 Vol.

Sí

24 de noviembre

$41,324 Vol.

No

25 de noviembre

$16,646 Vol.

No

26 de noviembre

$36,978 Vol.

No

27 de noviembre

$18,887 Vol.

Sí

28 de noviembre

$45,758 Vol.

No

29 de noviembre

$30,122 Vol.

No

30 de noviembre

$20,350 Vol.

No

1 de diciembre

$16,399 Vol.

No

2 de diciembre

$28,740 Vol.

No

3 de diciembre

$22,529 Vol.

No

4 de diciembre

$129,893 Vol.

Sí

5 de diciembre

$61,486 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 6 de diciembre

$32,733 Vol.

No

7 de diciembre

$43,531 Vol.

No

8 de diciembre

$4,021,935 Vol.

Sí

9 de diciembre

$118,320 Vol.

No

10 de diciembre

$30,550 Vol.

No

11 de diciembre

$16,645 Vol.

No

12 de diciembre

$23,012 Vol.

Sí

13 de diciembre

$84,378 Vol.

No

14 de diciembre

$101,053 Vol.

Sí

15 de diciembre

$21,960 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 16 de diciembre

$55,553 Vol.

Sí

17 de diciembre

$59,674 Vol.

No

18 de diciembre

$34,253 Vol.

Sí

19 de diciembre

$28,701 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 20 de diciembre

$126,380 Vol.

No

21 de diciembre

$122,833 Vol.

Sí

22 de diciembre

$122,462 Vol.

Sí

23 de diciembre

$53,755 Vol.

No

24 de diciembre

$73,248 Vol.

Sí

25 de diciembre

$29,586 Vol.

Sí

26 de diciembre

$17,189 Vol.

Sí

27 de diciembre

$39,594 Vol.

No

28 de diciembre

$19,989 Vol.

No

29 de diciembre

$28,354 Vol.

No

30 de diciembre

$28,941 Vol.

No

31 de diciembre

$28,263 Vol.

No

Acerca de

Volumen
$9,121,450
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2025
Creado en
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.