Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms at 86.5%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages around Democrats +5.5 to +6, per Nate Silver and RealClearPolling aggregates from late March. Recent CNN/SSRS polling (March 26-30) shows Democrats ahead 48%-42% among registered voters and by 19 points among the most motivated, driven by higher Democratic enthusiasm amid low Trump approval (net -17) and unfavorable views of both parties. Historical midterm dynamics—where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of 20 cycles since 1946—compound risks to the GOP's slim current majority, with backlash intensifying from U.S. airstrikes in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, unpopular with 55% of Americans and linked to rising gas prices over $4. GOP retirements outnumber Democrats', but 19 months remain for shifts via primaries, economic changes, or de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara en 2026?
¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara en 2026?
$4,155,105 Vol.
$4,155,105 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Gana un 4%
Partido Demócrata
87%
Partido Republicano
14%
$4,155,105 Vol.
$4,155,105 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Gana un 4%
Partido Demócrata
$2,116,165 Vol.
87%
Partido Republicano
$2,038,941 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms at 86.5%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages around Democrats +5.5 to +6, per Nate Silver and RealClearPolling aggregates from late March. Recent CNN/SSRS polling (March 26-30) shows Democrats ahead 48%-42% among registered voters and by 19 points among the most motivated, driven by higher Democratic enthusiasm amid low Trump approval (net -17) and unfavorable views of both parties. Historical midterm dynamics—where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of 20 cycles since 1946—compound risks to the GOP's slim current majority, with backlash intensifying from U.S. airstrikes in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, unpopular with 55% of Americans and linked to rising gas prices over $4. GOP retirements outnumber Democrats', but 19 months remain for shifts via primaries, economic changes, or de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Mercado abierto: Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volumen
$4,155,105Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms at 86.5%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages around Democrats +5.5 to +6, per Nate Silver and RealClearPolling aggregates from late March. Recent CNN/SSRS polling (March 26-30) shows Democrats ahead 48%-42% among registered voters and by 19 points among the most motivated, driven by higher Democratic enthusiasm amid low Trump approval (net -17) and unfavorable views of both parties. Historical midterm dynamics—where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of 20 cycles since 1946—compound risks to the GOP's slim current majority, with backlash intensifying from U.S. airstrikes in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, unpopular with 55% of Americans and linked to rising gas prices over $4. GOP retirements outnumber Democrats', but 19 months remain for shifts via primaries, economic changes, or de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Volumen
$4,155,105Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democratic control of the House after the 2026 midterms at 86.5%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages around Democrats +5.5 to +6, per Nate Silver and RealClearPolling aggregates from late March. Recent CNN/SSRS polling (March 26-30) shows Democrats ahead 48%-42% among registered voters and by 19 points among the most motivated, driven by higher Democratic enthusiasm amid low Trump approval (net -17) and unfavorable views of both parties. Historical midterm dynamics—where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of 20 cycles since 1946—compound risks to the GOP's slim current majority, with backlash intensifying from U.S. airstrikes in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, unpopular with 55% of Americans and linked to rising gas prices over $4. GOP retirements outnumber Democrats', but 19 months remain for shifts via primaries, economic changes, or de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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