Péter Magyar's Tisza party has surged to lead Fidesz in multiple recent polls, with national support around 30% versus Fidesz's 28-29%, fueling trader consensus for a 66.5% implied probability that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will exit office by December 31, 2026. This momentum stems from Magyar's rapid rise since spring 2024, triggered by his whistleblowing on a government pardon scandal involving child protection cases, which prompted the resignation of Orbán's chief of staff. Ongoing economic discontent, inflation pressures, and Hungary's standoffs with the EU over rule-of-law funds and Ukraine aid have eroded Fidesz support, highlighted by opposition gains in October by-elections. The April 2026 parliamentary vote under Hungary's mixed electoral system will test Fidesz's gerrymandered advantages amid fragmented opposition dynamics and potential coalition negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Viktor Orbán fuera para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?
¿Viktor Orbán fuera para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?
Sí
$56,154 Vol.
$56,154 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$56,154 Vol.
$56,154 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Volumen
$56,154Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$56,154Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Péter Magyar's Tisza party has surged to lead Fidesz in multiple recent polls, with national support around 30% versus Fidesz's 28-29%, fueling trader consensus for a 66.5% implied probability that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will exit office by December 31, 2026. This momentum stems from Magyar's rapid rise since spring 2024, triggered by his whistleblowing on a government pardon scandal involving child protection cases, which prompted the resignation of Orbán's chief of staff. Ongoing economic discontent, inflation pressures, and Hungary's standoffs with the EU over rule-of-law funds and Ukraine aid have eroded Fidesz support, highlighted by opposition gains in October by-elections. The April 2026 parliamentary vote under Hungary's mixed electoral system will test Fidesz's gerrymandered advantages amid fragmented opposition dynamics and potential coalition negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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