Trader consensus heavily favors Europe at 69.5% implied probability to claim the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by the continent's unmatched depth of elite talent across UEFA's 16 qualification slots and Spain's commanding Euro 2024 victory, which showcased tactical prowess and young stars like Yamal and Williams poised for senior impact. South America's 21.5% reflects Argentina's gritty Copa America 2024 title defense amid Messi's lingering injury concerns, alongside Brazil's pedigree despite uneven CONMEBOL qualifier form where they sit fourth after recent draws. Africa's 4% and Asia's 2% stem from promising but unproven CAF and AFC qualifier starts—Morocco surging, Japan steady—yet lacking proven knockout pedigree despite expanded slots to nine and eight. North America's 2.5% and Oceania's 0.4% underscore host advantages for USA, Canada, Mexico but historical underperformance in CONCACAF's six berths. No major shifts in the past week, with focus on ongoing qualifiers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué continente ganará la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2026?
¿Qué continente ganará la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2026?
Europa 70%
Sudamérica 22%
África 4.0%
América del Norte 2.6%
$1,476,067 Vol.
$1,476,067 Vol.
Europa
70%
Sudamérica
22%
África
4%
América del Norte
3%
Asia
2%
Oceanía
<1%
Europa 70%
Sudamérica 22%
África 4.0%
América del Norte 2.6%
$1,476,067 Vol.
$1,476,067 Vol.
Europa
70%
Sudamérica
22%
África
4%
América del Norte
3%
Asia
2%
Oceanía
<1%
For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 3:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Europe at 69.5% implied probability to claim the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by the continent's unmatched depth of elite talent across UEFA's 16 qualification slots and Spain's commanding Euro 2024 victory, which showcased tactical prowess and young stars like Yamal and Williams poised for senior impact. South America's 21.5% reflects Argentina's gritty Copa America 2024 title defense amid Messi's lingering injury concerns, alongside Brazil's pedigree despite uneven CONMEBOL qualifier form where they sit fourth after recent draws. Africa's 4% and Asia's 2% stem from promising but unproven CAF and AFC qualifier starts—Morocco surging, Japan steady—yet lacking proven knockout pedigree despite expanded slots to nine and eight. North America's 2.5% and Oceania's 0.4% underscore host advantages for USA, Canada, Mexico but historical underperformance in CONCACAF's six berths. No major shifts in the past week, with focus on ongoing qualifiers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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