Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the March 31 completion of UEFA and intercontinental playoffs that finalized the 48-team field without eliminating any top contenders, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title and favorable Group H draw against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and debutants Cape Verde. France trails closely in Group I, navigating Senegal's attack and Norway's Haaland-led threat, while England faces familiar rivalry with Croatia in Group L. Argentina's experience, Brazil's historical edge in Group C versus Morocco, and Portugal's depth in Group K versus Colombia keep the top cluster tight at 8-16% implied probabilities, underscoring an open expanded format where top-two group advancement favors multiple elite European and South American powers amid post-qualifier form uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 15.7%
Francia 13.8%
Inglaterra 11.5%
Argentina 9.2%
$498,478,143 Vol.
$498,478,143 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
España 15.7%
Francia 13.8%
Inglaterra 11.5%
Argentina 9.2%
$498,478,143 Vol.
$498,478,143 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the March 31 completion of UEFA and intercontinental playoffs that finalized the 48-team field without eliminating any top contenders, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title and favorable Group H draw against Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and debutants Cape Verde. France trails closely in Group I, navigating Senegal's attack and Norway's Haaland-led threat, while England faces familiar rivalry with Croatia in Group L. Argentina's experience, Brazil's historical edge in Group C versus Morocco, and Portugal's depth in Group K versus Colombia keep the top cluster tight at 8-16% implied probabilities, underscoring an open expanded format where top-two group advancement favors multiple elite European and South American powers amid post-qualifier form uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes