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Política·Inglaterra

¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?

Market icon
Política·Inglaterra

¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?

Ningún próximo PM en 2026 35%

Angela Rayner 21%

Ed Miliband 10.4%

Nigel Farage 8.5%

Polymarket

$3,447,940 Vol.

Ningún próximo PM en 2026 35%

Angela Rayner 21%

Ed Miliband 10.4%

Nigel Farage 8.5%

Polymarket

$3,447,940 Vol.

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Ningún próximo PM en 2026

$121,987 Vol.

35%

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Angela Rayner

$253,196 Vol.

21%

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Ed Miliband

$170,203 Vol.

10%

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Nigel Farage

$552,314 Vol.

9%

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Wes Streeting

$0 Vol.

6%

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Rupert Lowe

$566,556 Vol.

4%

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Yvette Cooper

$153,879 Vol.

4%

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Andy Burnham

$288,412 Vol.

4%

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Shabana Mahmood

$198,264 Vol.

2%

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Al Carns

$98,643 Vol.

1%

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Lucy Powell

$0 Vol.

1%

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David Lammy

$96,613 Vol.

1%

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Rachel Reeves

$352,946 Vol.

1%

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Kemi Badenoch

$107,288 Vol.

<1%

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Darren Jones

$122,931 Vol.

<1%

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Boris Johnson

$75,264 Vol.

<1%

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Ed Davey

$41,626 Vol.

<1%

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Bridget Phillipson

$57,259 Vol.

<1%

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Robert Jenrick

$99,700 Vol.

<1%

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James Cleverly

$90,857 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 35%, reflecting Keir Starmer's fresh Labour majority government stability despite fiscal headwinds, with fixed-term expectations barring snap election or no-confidence vote. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's 20.5% lead among alternatives arises from her prominent role in housing and employment policy, amplified by recent clearance in a tax investigation and party conference visibility as a potential successor amid internal tensions. Ed Miliband's 10.4% ties to his energy secretary post and net zero push, while Nigel Farage's 8.6% captures Reform UK's polling gains and by-election threats. October's controversial budget, including winter fuel payment cuts, sparked 40+ Labour MP rebellions but failed to derail leadership, underscoring short-term resilience ahead of 2029 election cycle.

Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 35%, reflecting Keir Starmer's fresh Labour majority government stability despite fiscal headwinds, with fixed-term expectations barring snap election or no-confidence vote. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's 20.5% lead among alternatives arises from her prominent role in housing and employment policy, amplified by recent clearance in a tax investigation and party conference visibility as a potential successor amid internal tensions. Ed Miliband's 10.4% ties to his energy secretary post and net zero push, while Nigel Farage's 8.6% captures Reform UK's polling gains and by-election threats. October's controversial budget, including winter fuel payment cuts, sparked 40+ Labour MP rebellions but failed to derail leadership, underscoring short-term resilience ahead of 2029 election cycle.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 35%, reflecting Keir Starmer's fresh Labour majority government stability despite fiscal headwinds, with fixed-term expectations barring snap election or no-confidence vote. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's 20.5% lead among alternatives arises from her prominent role in housing and employment policy, amplified by recent clearance in a tax investigation and party conference visibility as a potential successor amid internal tensions. Ed Miliband's 10.4% ties to his energy secretary post and net zero push, while Nigel Farage's 8.6% captures Reform UK's polling gains and by-election threats. October's controversial budget, including winter fuel payment cuts, sparked 40+ Labour MP rebellions but failed to derail leadership, underscoring short-term resilience ahead of 2029 election cycle.

Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 35%, reflecting Keir Starmer's fresh Labour majority government stability despite fiscal headwinds, with fixed-term expectations barring snap election or no-confidence vote. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's 20.5% lead among alternatives arises from her prominent role in housing and employment policy, amplified by recent clearance in a tax investigation and party conference visibility as a potential successor amid internal tensions. Ed Miliband's 10.4% ties to his energy secretary post and net zero push, while Nigel Farage's 8.6% captures Reform UK's polling gains and by-election threats. October's controversial budget, including winter fuel payment cuts, sparked 40+ Labour MP rebellions but failed to derail leadership, underscoring short-term resilience ahead of 2029 election cycle.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 20 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Ningún próximo PM en 2026" con 35%, seguido de "Angela Rayner" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 35¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" ha generado $3.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 5, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?", explora los 20 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" es "Ningún próximo PM en 2026" con 35%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Angela Rayner" con 21%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.