Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 7.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, buoyed by her continued leadership in the Russian opposition following Alexei Navalny's death, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Donald Trump trails closely at 6.5%, propelled by public nominations from leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, as revealed in the Norwegian Nobel Committee's April 30 disclosure of 287 total candidates—fueling early speculation despite historical committee secrecy. Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 5.8% reflects his nomination alongside Ukraine's people for wartime resilience. With probabilities tightly clustered below 10%, the field remains wide-open, hinging on committee preferences for anti-authoritarian activism versus diplomatic breakthroughs; announcement looms October 9, where upsets are common in this unpredictable awards landscape.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoContinued lack of official announcements or strong signals from the Norwegian Nobel Committee about the ICJ’s candidacy results in the market
International Court of Justice dips to 2%1%
Continued lack of official announcements or strong signals from the Norwegian Nobel Committee about the ICJ’s candidacy results in the market
The Guardian reported the BJP’s surprise victory in the West Bengal state election, which, while a domestic political win, underscored Modi’s focus on electoral consolidation
The Guardian reported the BJP’s surprise victory in the West Bengal state election, which, while a domestic political win, underscored Modi’s focus on electoral consolidation rather than international peace efforts, keeping his Nobel‑peace prospects low
Continued debate and petitions supporting Zelenskyy's candidacy highlight his symbolic role in defending democracy and peace, but uncertainty about awarding the prize during
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%2%
Continued debate and petitions supporting Zelenskyy's candidacy highlight his symbolic role in defending democracy and peace, but uncertainty about awarding the prize during active war keeps the
A Reddit thread and several social‑media posts revive discussion of Zelenskyy’s nomination, briefly lifting his odds before the market settled back
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%2%
A Reddit thread and several social‑media posts revive discussion of Zelenskyy’s nomination, briefly lifting his odds before the market settled back
Zelenskyy is formally confirmed as a Nobel Peace Prize nominee by credible sources, renewing market interest but tempered by the ongoing conflict and Nobel Committee's cautious
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%2%
Zelenskyy is formally confirmed as a Nobel Peace Prize nominee by credible sources, renewing market interest but tempered by the ongoing conflict and Nobel Committee's cautious stance
Media outlets report that the Nobel Committee’s shortlist is expected to include “the Ukrainian people and President Zelenskyy,” causing a short‑term rally
Volodymyr Zelenskyy drops to 8%5%
Media outlets report that the Nobel Committee’s shortlist is expected to include “the Ukrainian people and President Zelenskyy,” causing a short‑term rally
UNRWA Situation Report highlights ongoing humanitarian crisis and Israeli restrictions blocking aid delivery into Gaza
UNRWA dips to 3%1%
Continued Israeli blocking of UNRWA humanitarian aid and persistent violence in Gaza underscored the agency's constrained operational environment, limiting its effectiveness and likely suppressing market expectations.
Washington DC Despatch detailed the Emir’s telephone call with U.S.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani rises to 7%3%
President Donald Trump on regional security, reviving talk of the Emir’s diplomatic influence and pushing the
BBC News covered the Indian government’s purchase of the Russian S‑400 missile system, a move that attracted global criticism for bolstering India’s strategic weapons stockpile
Narendra Modi rises to 3%1%
BBC News covered the Indian government’s purchase of the Russian S‑400 missile system, a move that attracted global criticism for bolstering India’s strategic weapons stockpile and further distancing Modi from the peace‑prize narrative
Zelenskyy’s nomination is highlighted in a Change.org petition that gathers thousands of signatures, further boosting his perceived odds
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 13%3%
Zelenskyy’s nomination is highlighted in a Change.org petition that gathers thousands of signatures, further boosting his perceived odds
Market speculation rises briefly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, but no direct news links Pope Leo XIV to Nobel Prize candidacy
Pope Leo XIV rises to 8%4%
Market speculation rises briefly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, but no direct news links Pope Leo XIV to Nobel Prize candidacy
Public and media attention on Zelenskyy's nomination intensifies, with discussions about his leadership during the war and the significance of Ukraine's resistance, causing a
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 14%9%
Public and media attention on Zelenskyy's nomination intensifies, with discussions about his leadership during the war and the significance of Ukraine's resistance, causing a temporary
Heightened geopolitical tensions and media attention on the ICJ’s role in high-stakes human-rights disputes cause a short-term
International Court of Justice jumps to 13%8%
Heightened geopolitical tensions and media attention on the ICJ’s role in high-stakes human-rights disputes cause a short-term
Nobel Peace Prize nomination deadline passes, with no public indication of the ICJ being a frontrunner, leading to a market correction downward
International Court of Justice dips to 3%3%
Nobel Peace Prize nomination deadline passes, with no public indication of the ICJ being a frontrunner, leading to a market correction downward
Federal watchdog identifies multiple UNRWA employees linked to October 7 kidnappings, raising criminal charges concerns
UNRWA dips to 4%2%
Revelations that UNRWA staff were tied to Hamas-related kidnappings severely damaged the agency's reputation and raised questions about its neutrality, contributing to a further decline in market confidence.
The Peninsula highlighted the Amir’s endorsement of the Doha International Maritime Defence Exhibition (DIMDEX) as a platform for global stability, providing a short‑term boost
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani rises to 7%3%
The Peninsula highlighted the Amir’s endorsement of the Doha International Maritime Defence Exhibition (DIMDEX) as a platform for global stability, providing a short‑term boost that helped the
Maple Leaf Times covered Prime Minister Mark Carney’s historic visit to Doha and his meeting with the Amir, highlighting Qatar’s role in promoting regional peace and briefly
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 7%1%
Maple Leaf Times covered Prime Minister Mark Carney’s historic visit to Doha and his meeting with the Amir, highlighting Qatar’s role in promoting regional peace and briefly lifting the outcome’s
Dr. Dag Øistein Endsjø, Professor at the University of Oslo, formally nominates Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, emphasizing their role
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 13%10%
Dr. Dag Øistein Endsjø, Professor at the University of Oslo, formally nominates Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, emphasizing their role in defending democracy and promoting peace despite ongoing war
Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally submits a nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people to the Nobel Committee, sparking a modest uptick in market confidence
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 10%6%
Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally submits a nomination of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people to the Nobel Committee, sparking a modest uptick in market confidence
Pope Leo XIV’s surprise private meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, emphasizing his engagement with
Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%
Pope Leo XIV’s surprise private meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, emphasizing his engagement with peace issues but not increasing his market odds significantly.
Pope Leo XIV holds surprise private audience with Venezuelan Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, highlighting his concern for Venezuela’s humanitarian
Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%
Pope Leo XIV holds surprise private audience with Venezuelan Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado at the Vatican, highlighting his concern for Venezuela’s humanitarian situation
Al Jazeera reported Modi’s planned state visit to Israel and his Knesset speech praising Indo‑Israeli defence cooperation, sparking protests in India and abroad and reinforcing
Narendra Modi rises to 2%1%
Al Jazeera reported Modi’s planned state visit to Israel and his Knesset speech praising Indo‑Israeli defence cooperation, sparking protests in India and abroad and reinforcing the view that his agenda was aligned with military partnerships rather than peace initiatives
Trump’s administration announces renewed Israeli strikes in Gaza after the cease‑fire collapses, further eroding his peace‑builder image and pushing the
Donald Trump drops to 7%6%
Trump’s administration announces renewed Israeli strikes in Gaza after the cease‑fire collapses, further eroding his peace‑builder image and pushing the
The Peninsula reported the Amir’s Amiri Decree appointing a new ambassador to Türkiye, signalling Qatar’s active diplomatic outreach and nudging the
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani rises to 8%1%
The Peninsula reported the Amir’s Amiri Decree appointing a new ambassador to Türkiye, signalling Qatar’s active diplomatic outreach and nudging the
Pope Leo XIV delivers Angelus address urging peace and respect for human rights in Venezuela amid political crisis
Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%
Pope Leo XIV delivers Angelus address urging peace and respect for human rights in Venezuela amid political crisis
Pope Leo XIV’s Angelus address expressing “deep concern” for Venezuela’s crisis and calling for peace and respect for human rights, signaling his moral leadership but not a Nobel
Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%
Pope Leo XIV’s Angelus address expressing “deep concern” for Venezuela’s crisis and calling for peace and respect for human rights, signaling his moral leadership but not a Nobel candidacy boost.
Diplomatic representatives attend information sessions at the Peace Palace, renewing public interest in the ICJ’s work and causing a brief
International Court of Justice jumps to 10%7%
Diplomatic representatives attend information sessions at the Peace Palace, renewing public interest in the ICJ’s work and causing a brief
Israel's Knesset adopts amendments to law aimed at ceasing UNRWA operations, further impeding the agency's activities
The Israeli parliament passed amendments to restrict UNRWA's ability to operate, intensifying legal and operational obstacles for the agency and signaling political opposition to its presence.
USA Today analysis outlines six major hurdles for Trump in 2026, highlighting the faltering Gaza cease‑fire and mounting congressional opposition, which dampens optimism about a
Donald Trump drops to 13%7%
USA Today analysis outlines six major hurdles for Trump in 2026, highlighting the faltering Gaza cease‑fire and mounting congressional opposition, which dampens optimism about a Nobel‑peace prospect
Reuters Breakingviews noted growing anti‑incumbency and speculation that India would soon be “pondering life after Narendra Modi,” signalling a waning of his international
Reuters Breakingviews noted growing anti‑incumbency and speculation that India would soon be “pondering life after Narendra Modi,” signalling a waning of his international prestige and reducing his odds of a peace‑prize nomination
UNRWA Commissioner-General reports Gaza remains in a man-made hunger crisis despite ceasefire, with 1.6 million people facing acute food insecurity
UNRWA dips to 6%4%
The report underscored the fragile humanitarian situation in Gaza, reflecting challenges UNRWA faces in delivering aid amid restrictions and conflict aftermath, likely dampening optimism about UNRWA's positive impact.
Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar‑a‑Lago, publicly endorsing Israel’s military actions and promising U.S.
Donald Trump dips to 20%4%
support, sparking debate over his “peace” credentials
Yulia Navalnaya participates in Crossing Border Festival conversation, promoting Navalny’s legacy
Her public engagement at the Crossing Border Festival in The Hague, discussing her late husband’s life and work, maintained her visibility but did not significantly alter market expectations, reflected in stable low.
International Court of Justice issues advisory opinion affirming Israel's obligation to respect UNRWA operations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and dismisses Israel's allegations of UNRWA complicity in Hamas attacks
UNRWA plunges to 9%41%
The ICJ ruled that Israel must facilitate UNRWA's relief efforts and rejected claims that UNRWA was complicit in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, reinforcing UNRWA's legal mandate but also highlighting ongoing tensions affecting its operations.
An Oslo professor publicly nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reviving media attention on his candidacy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 4%1%
An Oslo professor publicly nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reviving media attention on his candidacy
Trump holds a press‑filled arrival on Air Force One, using the platform to promote his Middle‑East diplomacy and the newly signed Gaza cease‑fire deal
Donald Trump dips to 24%4%
Trump holds a press‑filled arrival on Air Force One, using the platform to promote his Middle‑East diplomacy and the newly signed Gaza cease‑fire deal
Reuters reports that the Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting focused on peace‑talks rather than new weapons, reinforcing doubts about Zelenskyy’s chances and keeping his odds low
Reuters reports that the Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting focused on peace‑talks rather than new weapons, reinforcing doubts about Zelenskyy’s chances and keeping his odds low
President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would
Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%
President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would favor a U.S. candidate over the Ukrainian president
Modi’s high‑profile appearance at the NDTV World Summit 2025 was dominated by his remarks on “Operation Sindoor” and a hard‑line stance against cross‑border terrorism, drawing
Narendra Modi plunges to 1%49%
Modi’s high‑profile appearance at the NDTV World Summit 2025 was dominated by his remarks on “Operation Sindoor” and a hard‑line stance against cross‑border terrorism, drawing criticism that his foreign‑policy focus was increasingly militaristic rather than peace‑building
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting their defense against Russian aggression but noting the
Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting their defense against Russian aggression but noting the Nobel Committee's usual reluctance to award current leaders in active conflicts
Initial market optimism with Pope Leo XIV at 50% likely based on early speculation or rumors about his candidacy, but no specific news event is documented for this date.
Initial market optimism with Pope Leo XIV at 50% likely based on early speculation or rumors about his candidacy, but no specific news event is documented for this date.
Prediction markets reveal the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, highlighting the power of decentralized markets to anticipate Nobel outcomes and reducing
International Court of Justice plunges to 4%45%
Prediction markets reveal the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, highlighting the power of decentralized markets to anticipate Nobel outcomes and reducing speculative interest in the ICJ for 2026
Action Network’s “2025 Nobel Peace Prize Predictions” listed Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani among the low‑probability individual nominees, underscoring his slim odds and
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 8%42%
Action Network’s “2025 Nobel Peace Prize Predictions” listed Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani among the low‑probability individual nominees, underscoring his slim odds and prompting the market’s plunge from 50 % to single‑digit levels
Yulia Navalnaya receives Brigitte Honorary Award for courage and political commitment
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 11%4%
Recognition at the Brigitte Awards in Berlin for her courage and leadership in continuing Navalny’s work abroad enhanced her international stature, contributing to a temporary.
Trump unveils a 20‑point Gaza peace plan, pledging Hamas disarmament and host‑age releases, thrusting him into the international peace‑negotiation spotlight
Donald Trump surges to 28%17%
Trump unveils a 20‑point Gaza peace plan, pledging Hamas disarmament and host‑age releases, thrusting him into the international peace‑negotiation spotlight
Yulia Navalnaya urges EU to maintain tourist visas for Russians amid sanctions debate
Navalnaya’s public appeal to the European Union to avoid blanket bans on Russian tourist visas highlighted her active political engagement and international advocacy, briefly boosting her profile and market.
Moscow court arrests Yulia Navalnaya in absentia on extremism charges
The Russian government’s legal action against Navalnaya, charging her with participation in an extremist organization and placing her on a wanted list, underscored the risks she faces and likely dampened market confidence in her winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
Yulia Navalnaya vows to continue Alexei Navalny’s fight for a free Russia after his death in prison
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
Following Alexei Navalny’s suspicious death in an Arctic prison on February 16, 2024, Yulia Navalnaya publicly committed to carrying on his opposition work, gaining immediate international attention and initial market interest. However, the sharp.
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