Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya edging Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 10.5% implied probability amid ongoing global tensions driving sentiment. Navalnaya's odds stem from her persistent advocacy against Russian authoritarianism following Alexei Navalny's death, amplified by recent international speeches highlighting human rights abuses. Zelenskyy's near-tie draws from Ukraine's resilience against invasion, bolstered by fresh U.S. aid commitments post-Trump's election victory, which paradoxically lifts his 7.5% stake as a potential peace broker in conflict zones. Lower contenders like Pope Leo XIV and Qatar's emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani gain from diplomatic maneuvers in Gaza hostage talks, but no frontrunner dominates due to the prize's unpredictable Norwegian Committee preferences and emphasis on surprise human rights champions. Key swings hinge on 2025 conflict resolutions or breakthroughs before nominations close in January.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoYulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump 8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV 4.1%
$11,008,158 Vol.
$11,008,158 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump
8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV
4%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4%
Corte Internacional de Justicia
3%
UNRWA
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Greta Thunberg
3%
Narendra Modi
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Charlie Kirk
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Khaled Mashal
1%
Julian Assange
1%
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%
Vladimir Putin
1%
António Guterres
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Yulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump 8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV 4.1%
$11,008,158 Vol.
$11,008,158 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump
8%
Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV
4%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4%
Corte Internacional de Justicia
3%
UNRWA
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Greta Thunberg
3%
Narendra Modi
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Charlie Kirk
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Khaled Mashal
1%
Julian Assange
1%
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%
Vladimir Putin
1%
António Guterres
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Mercado abierto: Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya edging Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 10.5% implied probability amid ongoing global tensions driving sentiment. Navalnaya's odds stem from her persistent advocacy against Russian authoritarianism following Alexei Navalny's death, amplified by recent international speeches highlighting human rights abuses. Zelenskyy's near-tie draws from Ukraine's resilience against invasion, bolstered by fresh U.S. aid commitments post-Trump's election victory, which paradoxically lifts his 7.5% stake as a potential peace broker in conflict zones. Lower contenders like Pope Leo XIV and Qatar's emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani gain from diplomatic maneuvers in Gaza hostage talks, but no frontrunner dominates due to the prize's unpredictable Norwegian Committee preferences and emphasis on surprise human rights champions. Key swings hinge on 2025 conflict resolutions or breakthroughs before nominations close in January.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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