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¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?

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¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?

$313,990 Vol.

Jul 30, 2026
Polymarket

$313,990 Vol.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$47,750 Vol.

83%

Jacob Tsimerman

$0 Vol.

59%

Jack Thorne

$94,001 Vol.

46%

Yu Deng

$95,730 Vol.

46%

John Pardon

$72,197 Vol.

30%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$0 Vol.

47%

Will Sawin

$3,778 Vol.

24%

Aleksandr Logunov

$158 Vol.

16%

Alexander Efimov

$376 Vol.

9%

Sam Raskin

$0 Vol.

39%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has surged as the trader consensus frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal after her 2025 breakthrough resolving the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture in geometric measure theory, with potential impacts on imaging, cryptography, and data processing. The 35-year-old Chinese mathematician reinforced her frontrunner status by sharing the Salem Prize and earning ICCM Gold in October 2025. Other prominent contenders include Jacob Tsimerman in number theory, John Pardon in geometry, Jack Thorne, Javier Fresán, and Julian Sahasrabudhe, whose recent ICM 2026 plenary invitation signals rising momentum. Up to four medals will be awarded to mathematicians under 40 at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, July 23–30, 2026, with further plenary announcements and precursor honors as pivotal catalysts amid secretive IMU voting.

Hong Wang has surged as the trader consensus frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal after her 2025 breakthrough resolving the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture in geometric measure theory, with potential impacts on imaging, cryptography, and data processing. The 35-year-old Chinese mathematician reinforced her frontrunner status by sharing the Salem Prize and earning ICCM Gold in October 2025. Other prominent contenders include Jacob Tsimerman in number theory, John Pardon in geometry, Jack Thorne, Javier Fresán, and Julian Sahasrabudhe, whose recent ICM 2026 plenary invitation signals rising momentum. Up to four medals will be awarded to mathematicians under 40 at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, July 23–30, 2026, with further plenary announcements and precursor honors as pivotal catalysts amid secretive IMU voting.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has surged as the trader consensus frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal after her 2025 breakthrough resolving the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture in geometric measure theory, with potential impacts on imaging, cryptography, and data processing. The 35-year-old Chinese mathematician reinforced her frontrunner status by sharing the Salem Prize and earning ICCM Gold in October 2025. Other prominent contenders include Jacob Tsimerman in number theory, John Pardon in geometry, Jack Thorne, Javier Fresán, and Julian Sahasrabudhe, whose recent ICM 2026 plenary invitation signals rising momentum. Up to four medals will be awarded to mathematicians under 40 at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, July 23–30, 2026, with further plenary announcements and precursor honors as pivotal catalysts amid secretive IMU voting.

Hong Wang has surged as the trader consensus frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal after her 2025 breakthrough resolving the century-old three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture in geometric measure theory, with potential impacts on imaging, cryptography, and data processing. The 35-year-old Chinese mathematician reinforced her frontrunner status by sharing the Salem Prize and earning ICCM Gold in October 2025. Other prominent contenders include Jacob Tsimerman in number theory, John Pardon in geometry, Jack Thorne, Javier Fresán, and Julian Sahasrabudhe, whose recent ICM 2026 plenary invitation signals rising momentum. Up to four medals will be awarded to mathematicians under 40 at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, July 23–30, 2026, with further plenary announcements and precursor honors as pivotal catalysts amid secretive IMU voting.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

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Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 10 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Hong Wang" con 83%, seguido de "Jacob Tsimerman" con 59%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 83¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" ha generado $314K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?", explora los 10 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" es "Hong Wang" con 83%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Jacob Tsimerman" con 59%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.