Texas GOP Senate primary traders favor Attorney General Ken Paxton at 62.5% implied probability over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's 34.5% ahead of the May 26 runoff, following the March 3 first-round results where neither cleared 50% to avoid it. Recent polls, such as Impact Research's March 20 survey showing Paxton leading 53%-37% and multiple subsequent public polls affirming his edge, have shifted sentiment toward the challenger, reflecting Paxton's appeal to the conservative base through his record of lawsuits against the Biden administration and resilience amid impeachment challenges. Cornyn's incumbency advantages are offset by perceptions of establishment ties and bipartisan votes; former President Trump's pending endorsement remains a key wildcard. Other candidates trail at negligible odds post-primary elimination.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las primarias republicanas del Senado de Texas
Ganador de las primarias republicanas del Senado de Texas
Ken Paxton 63%
John Cornyn 35%
Dawn Buckingham <1%
Beth Van Duyne <1%
$15,116,491 Vol.
$15,116,491 Vol.
Ken Paxton
63%
John Cornyn
35%
Dawn Buckingham
<1%
Beth Van Duyne
<1%
Wesley Hunt
<1%
Ken Paxton 63%
John Cornyn 35%
Dawn Buckingham <1%
Beth Van Duyne <1%
$15,116,491 Vol.
$15,116,491 Vol.
Ken Paxton
63%
John Cornyn
35%
Dawn Buckingham
<1%
Beth Van Duyne
<1%
Wesley Hunt
<1%
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas GOP Senate primary traders favor Attorney General Ken Paxton at 62.5% implied probability over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's 34.5% ahead of the May 26 runoff, following the March 3 first-round results where neither cleared 50% to avoid it. Recent polls, such as Impact Research's March 20 survey showing Paxton leading 53%-37% and multiple subsequent public polls affirming his edge, have shifted sentiment toward the challenger, reflecting Paxton's appeal to the conservative base through his record of lawsuits against the Biden administration and resilience amid impeachment challenges. Cornyn's incumbency advantages are offset by perceptions of establishment ties and bipartisan votes; former President Trump's pending endorsement remains a key wildcard. Other candidates trail at negligible odds post-primary elimination.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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