Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party (DP) securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections on June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by the ruling party's strong 45% approval rating versus the People Power Party's (PPP) 17% slump amid post-presidential transition woes. At least five constituencies are confirmed vacant due to lawmakers like President Lee Jae-myung and Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik vacating seats, with up to 10-15 potentially added from local race resignations, per recent analyses. Over the past week, DP internal nomination disputes in contested areas like Busan and Gyeonggi have surfaced but failed to erode its lead, as polls project a landslide; lower outcomes reflect risks from splinter parties like Rebuilding Korea fielding rivals and undecided turnout in battleground districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado# de escaños ganados por DP en las elecciones parciales de Corea del Sur?
# de escaños ganados por DP en las elecciones parciales de Corea del Sur?
10+ 55.5%
8-9 38.0%
6-7 4.0%
2-3 2.2%
$19,867 Vol.
$19,867 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
<1%
2-3
2%
4-5
1%
6-7
4%
8-9
38%
10+
55%
10+ 55.5%
8-9 38.0%
6-7 4.0%
2-3 2.2%
$19,867 Vol.
$19,867 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
$1,927 Vol.
<1%
2-3
$3,668 Vol.
2%
4-5
$2,140 Vol.
1%
6-7
$2,103 Vol.
4%
8-9
$2,519 Vol.
38%
10+
$7,511 Vol.
55%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party (DP) securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections on June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by the ruling party's strong 45% approval rating versus the People Power Party's (PPP) 17% slump amid post-presidential transition woes. At least five constituencies are confirmed vacant due to lawmakers like President Lee Jae-myung and Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik vacating seats, with up to 10-15 potentially added from local race resignations, per recent analyses. Over the past week, DP internal nomination disputes in contested areas like Busan and Gyeonggi have surfaced but failed to erode its lead, as polls project a landslide; lower outcomes reflect risks from splinter parties like Rebuilding Korea fielding rivals and undecided turnout in battleground districts.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volumen
$19,867Fecha de finalización
Jun 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party (DP) securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections on June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by the ruling party's strong 45% approval rating versus the People Power Party's (PPP) 17% slump amid post-presidential transition woes. At least five constituencies are confirmed vacant due to lawmakers like President Lee Jae-myung and Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik vacating seats, with up to 10-15 potentially added from local race resignations, per recent analyses. Over the past week, DP internal nomination disputes in contested areas like Busan and Gyeonggi have surfaced but failed to erode its lead, as polls project a landslide; lower outcomes reflect risks from splinter parties like Rebuilding Korea fielding rivals and undecided turnout in battleground districts.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Volumen
$19,867Fecha de finalización
Jun 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party (DP) securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in upcoming National Assembly by-elections on June 3, 2026, alongside local elections, driven by the ruling party's strong 45% approval rating versus the People Power Party's (PPP) 17% slump amid post-presidential transition woes. At least five constituencies are confirmed vacant due to lawmakers like President Lee Jae-myung and Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik vacating seats, with up to 10-15 potentially added from local race resignations, per recent analyses. Over the past week, DP internal nomination disputes in contested areas like Busan and Gyeonggi have surfaced but failed to erode its lead, as polls project a landslide; lower outcomes reflect risks from splinter parties like Rebuilding Korea fielding rivals and undecided turnout in battleground districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes