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Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-10

Market icon
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-10

Brad Lander 76%

Dan Goldman 21%

Cameron Kasky 4.6%

Yuh-Line Niou 3.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Brad Lander 76%

Dan Goldman 21%

Cameron Kasky 4.6%

Yuh-Line Niou 3.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Brad Lander

$1,538 Vol.

76%

Dan Goldman

$1,019 Vol.

21%

Cameron Kasky

$611 Vol.

5%

Yuh-Line Niou

$557 Vol.

3%

Alexa Avilés

$825 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, driven by progressive momentum from his cross-endorsement with NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and grassroots criticism of incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's $1.7 million in career pro-Israel PAC donations, including $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle. A Supreme Court ruling on March 3 finalized district maps, clearing a Lander-Goldman showdown after left-leaning rivals like Yuh-Line Niou stepped aside in December. Recent escalations include Lander's March 23 "People’s Pledge" challenge to curb dark money—drawing Goldman's rebuttal—and a District Council 37 union endorsement for Goldman on March 25, yet traders favor Lander's polling edge from a September 2025 survey showing a 19-point lead. Filing deadline is April 6, with turnout among young and progressive voters in this D+32 district pivotal.

Former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, driven by progressive momentum from his cross-endorsement with NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and grassroots criticism of incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's $1.7 million in career pro-Israel PAC donations, including $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle. A Supreme Court ruling on March 3 finalized district maps, clearing a Lander-Goldman showdown after left-leaning rivals like Yuh-Line Niou stepped aside in December. Recent escalations include Lander's March 23 "People’s Pledge" challenge to curb dark money—drawing Goldman's rebuttal—and a District Council 37 union endorsement for Goldman on March 25, yet traders favor Lander's polling edge from a September 2025 survey showing a 19-point lead. Filing deadline is April 6, with turnout among young and progressive voters in this D+32 district pivotal.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, driven by progressive momentum from his cross-endorsement with NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and grassroots criticism of incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's $1.7 million in career pro-Israel PAC donations, including $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle. A Supreme Court ruling on March 3 finalized district maps, clearing a Lander-Goldman showdown after left-leaning rivals like Yuh-Line Niou stepped aside in December. Recent escalations include Lander's March 23 "People’s Pledge" challenge to curb dark money—drawing Goldman's rebuttal—and a District Council 37 union endorsement for Goldman on March 25, yet traders favor Lander's polling edge from a September 2025 survey showing a 19-point lead. Filing deadline is April 6, with turnout among young and progressive voters in this D+32 district pivotal.

Former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, driven by progressive momentum from his cross-endorsement with NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and grassroots criticism of incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman's $1.7 million in career pro-Israel PAC donations, including $370,000 from AIPAC this cycle. A Supreme Court ruling on March 3 finalized district maps, clearing a Lander-Goldman showdown after left-leaning rivals like Yuh-Line Niou stepped aside in December. Recent escalations include Lander's March 23 "People’s Pledge" challenge to curb dark money—drawing Goldman's rebuttal—and a District Council 37 union endorsement for Goldman on March 25, yet traders favor Lander's polling edge from a September 2025 survey showing a 19-point lead. Filing deadline is April 6, with turnout among young and progressive voters in this D+32 district pivotal.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-10" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Brad Lander" con 76%, seguido de "Dan Goldman" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 76¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-10" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Nov 25, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-10", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-10" es "Brad Lander" con 76%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Dan Goldman" con 21%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-10" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.