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Política·Inglaterra

¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?

Market icon
Política·Inglaterra

¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?

Ningún próximo PM en 2026 37%

Angela Rayner 24%

Ed Miliband 10.0%

Nigel Farage 8.4%

Polymarket

$3,632,203 Vol.

Ningún próximo PM en 2026 37%

Angela Rayner 24%

Ed Miliband 10.0%

Nigel Farage 8.4%

Polymarket

$3,632,203 Vol.

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Ningún próximo PM en 2026

$122,291 Vol.

37%

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Angela Rayner

$254,830 Vol.

24%

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Ed Miliband

$173,809 Vol.

10%

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Nigel Farage

$553,493 Vol.

8%

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Wes Streeting

$60,993 Vol.

6%

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Yvette Cooper

$153,879 Vol.

4%

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Rupert Lowe

$567,155 Vol.

4%

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Andy Burnham

$288,416 Vol.

4%

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Shabana Mahmood

$198,264 Vol.

2%

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Al Carns

$102,499 Vol.

1%

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Lucy Powell

$0 Vol.

1%

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David Lammy

$96,613 Vol.

1%

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Rachel Reeves

$352,948 Vol.

<1%

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Kemi Badenoch

$109,893 Vol.

<1%

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Darren Jones

$122,955 Vol.

<1%

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Boris Johnson

$101,962 Vol.

<1%

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Ed Davey

$70,007 Vol.

<1%

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Bridget Phillipson

$57,729 Vol.

<1%

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Robert Jenrick

$124,877 Vol.

<1%

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James Cleverly

$120,184 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of a February leadership challenge tied to the Mandelson-Epstein ambassador controversy and his vows to remain despite falling popularity and local election routs. Angela Rayner's 23.5% implied probability surged after her March 18 speech branding Labour's immigration reforms "un-British" and warning the party is "running out of time," positioning her as the frontrunner for any internal coup amid left-wing calls for reset. Ed Miliband at 10% benefits from policy influence as Energy Secretary and denied leadership rumors, while Nigel Farage's 8.5% stems from Reform UK's poll leads and aggressive opposition blueprint. With the next general election not until 2029, traders weigh party pressures against incumbency stability ahead of May local votes.

Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of a February leadership challenge tied to the Mandelson-Epstein ambassador controversy and his vows to remain despite falling popularity and local election routs. Angela Rayner's 23.5% implied probability surged after her March 18 speech branding Labour's immigration reforms "un-British" and warning the party is "running out of time," positioning her as the frontrunner for any internal coup amid left-wing calls for reset. Ed Miliband at 10% benefits from policy influence as Energy Secretary and denied leadership rumors, while Nigel Farage's 8.5% stems from Reform UK's poll leads and aggressive opposition blueprint. With the next general election not until 2029, traders weigh party pressures against incumbency stability ahead of May local votes.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of a February leadership challenge tied to the Mandelson-Epstein ambassador controversy and his vows to remain despite falling popularity and local election routs. Angela Rayner's 23.5% implied probability surged after her March 18 speech branding Labour's immigration reforms "un-British" and warning the party is "running out of time," positioning her as the frontrunner for any internal coup amid left-wing calls for reset. Ed Miliband at 10% benefits from policy influence as Energy Secretary and denied leadership rumors, while Nigel Farage's 8.5% stems from Reform UK's poll leads and aggressive opposition blueprint. With the next general election not until 2029, traders weigh party pressures against incumbency stability ahead of May local votes.

Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of a February leadership challenge tied to the Mandelson-Epstein ambassador controversy and his vows to remain despite falling popularity and local election routs. Angela Rayner's 23.5% implied probability surged after her March 18 speech branding Labour's immigration reforms "un-British" and warning the party is "running out of time," positioning her as the frontrunner for any internal coup amid left-wing calls for reset. Ed Miliband at 10% benefits from policy influence as Energy Secretary and denied leadership rumors, while Nigel Farage's 8.5% stems from Reform UK's poll leads and aggressive opposition blueprint. With the next general election not until 2029, traders weigh party pressures against incumbency stability ahead of May local votes.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 20 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Ningún próximo PM en 2026" con 37%, seguido de "Angela Rayner" con 24%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 37¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" ha generado $3.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 5, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?", explora los 20 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" es "Ningún próximo PM en 2026" con 37%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Angela Rayner" con 24%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Próximo primer ministro del Reino Unido en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.