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Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Cuántos escaños ganará IUML en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Kerala?

Market icon
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Cuántos escaños ganará IUML en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Kerala?

19–21 44%

16–18 30%

22+ 23%

13–15 20%

Polymarket
NEW

19–21 44%

16–18 30%

22+ 23%

13–15 20%

Polymarket
NEW

<10

$147 Vol.

11%

10–12

$0 Vol.

8%

13–15

$0 Vol.

20%

16–18

$0 Vol.

30%

19–21

$0 Vol.

44%

22+

$0 Vol.

23%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.

Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.

Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos escaños ganará IUML en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Kerala?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "19–21" con 44%, seguido de "16–18" con 30%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 44¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Cuántos escaños ganará IUML en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Kerala?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Dec 23, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos escaños ganará IUML en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Kerala?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos escaños ganará IUML en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Kerala?" es "19–21" con 44%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "16–18" con 30%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos escaños ganará IUML en las próximas elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Kerala?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.