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Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

Market icon

Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 26.8%

Siga Batista 11.7%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 4.2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 3.6%

Polymarket

$281,142 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 26.8%

Siga Batista 11.7%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 4.2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 3.6%

Polymarket

$281,142 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$32,399 Vol.

27%

Siga Batista

$19,531 Vol.

10%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$17,220 Vol.

4%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$83,053 Vol.

4%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$17,835 Vol.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,023 Vol.

3%

João de Deus Mendes

$15,506 Vol.

3%

Baciro Djá

$13,590 Vol.

3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$14,352 Vol.

3%

Título del ítem del grupo: João Bernardo Vieira

$14,128 Vol.

3%

José Mário Vaz

$20,387 Vol.

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$16,119 Vol.

2%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 27% implied probability in Guinea-Bissau's wide-open presidential race set for December 6, reflecting his strong performance in the annulled November 2025 election, where he led with 49% against incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló's 48% before a military coup derailed results and installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Siga Batista trails at 10%, buoyed by his parliamentary profile and potential military ties, while Embaló languishes at 4% post-exile. No polls are permitted under electoral law, leaving fragmentation amid coalition negotiations between PRS, PAIGC, and smaller parties; consolidation could hinge on endorsements, diaspora support, or junta signals on candidate eligibility before campaigning ramps up.

Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 27% implied probability in Guinea-Bissau's wide-open presidential race set for December 6, reflecting his strong performance in the annulled November 2025 election, where he led with 49% against incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló's 48% before a military coup derailed results and installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Siga Batista trails at 10%, buoyed by his parliamentary profile and potential military ties, while Embaló languishes at 4% post-exile. No polls are permitted under electoral law, leaving fragmentation amid coalition negotiations between PRS, PAIGC, and smaller parties; consolidation could hinge on endorsements, diaspora support, or junta signals on candidate eligibility before campaigning ramps up.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 27% implied probability in Guinea-Bissau's wide-open presidential race set for December 6, reflecting his strong performance in the annulled November 2025 election, where he led with 49% against incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló's 48% before a military coup derailed results and installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Siga Batista trails at 10%, buoyed by his parliamentary profile and potential military ties, while Embaló languishes at 4% post-exile. No polls are permitted under electoral law, leaving fragmentation amid coalition negotiations between PRS, PAIGC, and smaller parties; consolidation could hinge on endorsements, diaspora support, or junta signals on candidate eligibility before campaigning ramps up.

Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 27% implied probability in Guinea-Bissau's wide-open presidential race set for December 6, reflecting his strong performance in the annulled November 2025 election, where he led with 49% against incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló's 48% before a military coup derailed results and installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Siga Batista trails at 10%, buoyed by his parliamentary profile and potential military ties, while Embaló languishes at 4% post-exile. No polls are permitted under electoral law, leaving fragmentation amid coalition negotiations between PRS, PAIGC, and smaller parties; consolidation could hinge on endorsements, diaspora support, or junta signals on candidate eligibility before campaigning ramps up.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 12 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Fernando Dias da Costa" con 27%, seguido de "Siga Batista" con 10%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 27¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 27% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" ha generado $281.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 6, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau", explora los 12 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" es "Fernando Dias da Costa" con 27%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 27% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Siga Batista" con 10%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.