Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median forecast to 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—amid resilient labor markets and AI-driven capital spending. This positioning holds despite headwinds: Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.7% annualized on March 13, Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1 2026 easing to 2.0% as of March 23, unemployment ticking up to 4.4% in February, and oil prices surging past $116 per barrel from the escalating Iran conflict, stoking inflation risks. Lower-bucketing outcomes trail due to broad economist base rates around 2.2–2.5%, with upcoming March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate critical catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
>2,5% 62%
1,5–2,0% 13.7%
<0.5% 10.0%
2.0–2.5% 9%
$25,066 Vol.
$25,066 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1,5–2,0%
14%
2.0–2.5%
9%
>2,5%
62%
>2,5% 62%
1,5–2,0% 13.7%
<0.5% 10.0%
2.0–2.5% 9%
$25,066 Vol.
$25,066 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$3,681 Vol.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$14,955 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$1,432 Vol.
7%
1,5–2,0%
$0 Vol.
14%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 Vol.
9%
>2,5%
$3,660 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median forecast to 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—amid resilient labor markets and AI-driven capital spending. This positioning holds despite headwinds: Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.7% annualized on March 13, Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1 2026 easing to 2.0% as of March 23, unemployment ticking up to 4.4% in February, and oil prices surging past $116 per barrel from the escalating Iran conflict, stoking inflation risks. Lower-bucketing outcomes trail due to broad economist base rates around 2.2–2.5%, with upcoming March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate critical catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$25,066Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median forecast to 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—amid resilient labor markets and AI-driven capital spending. This positioning holds despite headwinds: Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.7% annualized on March 13, Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1 2026 easing to 2.0% as of March 23, unemployment ticking up to 4.4% in February, and oil prices surging past $116 per barrel from the escalating Iran conflict, stoking inflation risks. Lower-bucketing outcomes trail due to broad economist base rates around 2.2–2.5%, with upcoming March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate critical catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$25,066Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median forecast to 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—amid resilient labor markets and AI-driven capital spending. This positioning holds despite headwinds: Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.7% annualized on March 13, Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1 2026 easing to 2.0% as of March 23, unemployment ticking up to 4.4% in February, and oil prices surging past $116 per barrel from the escalating Iran conflict, stoking inflation risks. Lower-bucketing outcomes trail due to broad economist base rates around 2.2–2.5%, with upcoming March CPI on April 10 and Q1 GDP advance estimate critical catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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