Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index—the second-most Democratic nationwide—drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability of a Democratic Party victory on November 3, 2026. The recent withdrawal of sole Republican primary candidate Heath Fulkerson ensures a Democrat-vs.-Democrat top-two general election matchup under California's nonpartisan primary system on June 2, following Simon's 65% 2024 win and fundraising dominance over challenger Jamie Joyce. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. A Republican upset would require unprecedented events like dual Democratic disqualifications or a historic national wave overcoming the district's deep-blue Bay Area fundamentals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoCA-12 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-12 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$12,956 Vol.
$12,956 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$12,956 Vol.
$12,956 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$8,131 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$4,825 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index—the second-most Democratic nationwide—drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability of a Democratic Party victory on November 3, 2026. The recent withdrawal of sole Republican primary candidate Heath Fulkerson ensures a Democrat-vs.-Democrat top-two general election matchup under California's nonpartisan primary system on June 2, following Simon's 65% 2024 win and fundraising dominance over challenger Jamie Joyce. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. A Republican upset would require unprecedented events like dual Democratic disqualifications or a historic national wave overcoming the district's deep-blue Bay Area fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$12,956Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index—the second-most Democratic nationwide—drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability of a Democratic Party victory on November 3, 2026. The recent withdrawal of sole Republican primary candidate Heath Fulkerson ensures a Democrat-vs.-Democrat top-two general election matchup under California's nonpartisan primary system on June 2, following Simon's 65% 2024 win and fundraising dominance over challenger Jamie Joyce. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. A Republican upset would require unprecedented events like dual Democratic disqualifications or a historic national wave overcoming the district's deep-blue Bay Area fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$12,956Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index—the second-most Democratic nationwide—drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability of a Democratic Party victory on November 3, 2026. The recent withdrawal of sole Republican primary candidate Heath Fulkerson ensures a Democrat-vs.-Democrat top-two general election matchup under California's nonpartisan primary system on June 2, following Simon's 65% 2024 win and fundraising dominance over challenger Jamie Joyce. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days. A Republican upset would require unprecedented events like dual Democratic disqualifications or a historic national wave overcoming the district's deep-blue Bay Area fundamentals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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