Trader consensus prices CDU at 51% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election, reflecting its consistent five-point lead in late February polls averaging 22%—ahead of AfD, SPD, Die Linke, and Grüne clustered at 15-17%. This positioning stems from CDU's incumbency as the largest party in the current grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered by national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government following recent state election successes, such as Baden-Württemberg's March vote where CDU strengthened significantly. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation with a 5% threshold favors CDU retention of plurality, though AfD's 19% odds highlight its gains on migration and economic discontent; no major shifts occurred in the past 30 days, with polls stable amid Berlin's housing and budget challenges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
CDU 51%
AfD 19.1%
Linke 11%
Verdes 10.2%
$1,660,684 Vol.
$1,660,684 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
51%
AfD
19%
Linke
11%
Verdes
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 51%
AfD 19.1%
Linke 11%
Verdes 10.2%
$1,660,684 Vol.
$1,660,684 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,887 Vol.
51%
AfD
$1,310,482 Vol.
19%
Linke
$8,144 Vol.
11%
Verdes
$23,004 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,700 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,318 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,295 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,098 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus prices CDU at 51% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election, reflecting its consistent five-point lead in late February polls averaging 22%—ahead of AfD, SPD, Die Linke, and Grüne clustered at 15-17%. This positioning stems from CDU's incumbency as the largest party in the current grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered by national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government following recent state election successes, such as Baden-Württemberg's March vote where CDU strengthened significantly. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation with a 5% threshold favors CDU retention of plurality, though AfD's 19% odds highlight its gains on migration and economic discontent; no major shifts occurred in the past 30 days, with polls stable amid Berlin's housing and budget challenges.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,660,684Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus prices CDU at 51% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election, reflecting its consistent five-point lead in late February polls averaging 22%—ahead of AfD, SPD, Die Linke, and Grüne clustered at 15-17%. This positioning stems from CDU's incumbency as the largest party in the current grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered by national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government following recent state election successes, such as Baden-Württemberg's March vote where CDU strengthened significantly. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation with a 5% threshold favors CDU retention of plurality, though AfD's 19% odds highlight its gains on migration and economic discontent; no major shifts occurred in the past 30 days, with polls stable amid Berlin's housing and budget challenges.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,660,684Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices CDU at 51% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026, state election, reflecting its consistent five-point lead in late February polls averaging 22%—ahead of AfD, SPD, Die Linke, and Grüne clustered at 15-17%. This positioning stems from CDU's incumbency as the largest party in the current grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, bolstered by national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government following recent state election successes, such as Baden-Württemberg's March vote where CDU strengthened significantly. Fragmented opposition under proportional representation with a 5% threshold favors CDU retention of plurality, though AfD's 19% odds highlight its gains on migration and economic discontent; no major shifts occurred in the past 30 days, with polls stable amid Berlin's housing and budget challenges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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