Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey, position the CDU as frontrunner at 22-23% in the Berlin state election slated for September 20, 2026, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD polls 17%, Linke 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This trader consensus, reflected in CDU's 48.5% implied probability of securing the most seats under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, stems from the party's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD coalition government led by Mayor Kai Wegner, stable polling trends over the past month, and CDU's firewall against AfD cooperation, mirroring gains in recent state votes like Baden-Württemberg. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the last 30 days, though smaller parties like FDP and BSW hover near the threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
CDU 50%
AfD 18.5%
Linke 12%
Verdes 10.2%
$1,783,518 Vol.
$1,783,518 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
50%
AfD
19%
Linke
12%
Verdes
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 50%
AfD 18.5%
Linke 12%
Verdes 10.2%
$1,783,518 Vol.
$1,783,518 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,012 Vol.
50%
AfD
$1,433,280 Vol.
19%
Linke
$8,150 Vol.
12%
Verdes
$23,073 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,769 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,534 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey, position the CDU as frontrunner at 22-23% in the Berlin state election slated for September 20, 2026, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD polls 17%, Linke 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This trader consensus, reflected in CDU's 48.5% implied probability of securing the most seats under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, stems from the party's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD coalition government led by Mayor Kai Wegner, stable polling trends over the past month, and CDU's firewall against AfD cooperation, mirroring gains in recent state votes like Baden-Württemberg. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the last 30 days, though smaller parties like FDP and BSW hover near the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,783,518Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey, position the CDU as frontrunner at 22-23% in the Berlin state election slated for September 20, 2026, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD polls 17%, Linke 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This trader consensus, reflected in CDU's 48.5% implied probability of securing the most seats under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, stems from the party's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD coalition government led by Mayor Kai Wegner, stable polling trends over the past month, and CDU's firewall against AfD cooperation, mirroring gains in recent state votes like Baden-Württemberg. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the last 30 days, though smaller parties like FDP and BSW hover near the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,783,518Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey, position the CDU as frontrunner at 22-23% in the Berlin state election slated for September 20, 2026, ahead of a fragmented field where AfD polls 17%, Linke 15-17%, SPD and Grüne around 15-16%. This trader consensus, reflected in CDU's 48.5% implied probability of securing the most seats under proportional representation with a 5% threshold, stems from the party's incumbency advantage in the current CDU-SPD coalition government led by Mayor Kai Wegner, stable polling trends over the past month, and CDU's firewall against AfD cooperation, mirroring gains in recent state votes like Baden-Württemberg. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the last 30 days, though smaller parties like FDP and BSW hover near the threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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